Good News: More Moisture. Bad News: Winter

By -
A very slow moving low pressure system in the upper atmosphere predicted to linger over the Southwest is going to bring much-needed moisture to the region. Here is the precipitation amount forecast for the next ten days (via AccuWeather's professional site, this is the European model):
click to enlarge


And, a significant amount of the moisture is going to fall in the form of snow. The graphic below are the probabilities of one inch or more of snow accumulation:

6pm Wednesday to 6pm Thursday


6pm Thursday to 6pm Friday


And, even heavier and more widespread snows will likely spread into the Plains Friday night and Saturday.

By Sunday morning, most of the Nation west of the Mississippi will be colder than average -- in some areas much colder. Winter is coming!

Comments

  1. Quiet ProfessionalNovember 30, 2011 at 1:29 AM

    What kind of a winter are you predicting for north metro Atlanta? Warmer or colder than the norm? More snow like last year?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Mike SmithNovember 30, 2011 at 1:56 AM

    Hi Quiet: I don't do long range forecasts, I just don't seem to have the talent/skill for it.

    Our long range forecast group at AccuWeather is releasing an updated winter forecast in a day or two and I will post it here. They do a very good job.

    Thanks for the question.

    Mike

    ReplyDelete
  3. Quiet ProfessionalNovember 30, 2011 at 2:23 PM

    Thanks--for some reason I thought you were based in Atlanta, so might have reason to hazard a guess! Now see that you're in Wichita.

    Bigger picture, and maybe the better question: are (or do we know if) winters in the southeast are generally trending warmer or cooler?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Mike SmithNovember 30, 2011 at 3:09 PM

    Don't know off the top of my head. However, the raw data is here: www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=ffc You can create a spreadsheet or use other methods to learn about trends, if any, in temperatures and precipitation.

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The East Coast Severe Weather Threat is Over

By -
Image
Midnight: The East Coast Threat for Tornadoes and Severe  Thunderstorms Has Ended 3:50pm. Tornado watch for the Middle Atlantic Region. 2:30pm Tornadoes are also forecast in the South. 2:20pm. A couple of tornadoes, hail and wind gusts to 65 mph are possible with these storms. This includes NYC and Philadelphia.  1:05pm. The tornado risk has been extended northward into New York. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Remember: if a tornado warning is issued, go to your basement and get under heavy furniture like a pool table. Of, if your basement is finished, get into the bathroom. Go ahead an put a couple of water bottles and, if appropriate, diapers in your shelter area. Wear shoes.  If you don't have a basement or safe room, go to the lowest floor and get into a bath or closet in the middle of your home. Children should be put in the bathtub.  I'll update later today. 
Read more

Today's Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - 9:30pm

By -
Image
After 65 mph winds went through Wichita, we have been without power for 35 minutes. So, I am going to have to end coverage for the night (using backup systems to write this). Scroll down for the forecast of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night.  Please read down for the latest forecasts regarding this dangerous tornado and damaging wind situation! 5:40pm, a new "regular" tornado watch has been issued for north central Kansas.  Note that wind gusts to 80 mph are likely in this storm in addition to tornadoes and giant hail. Please make sure friends and relatives in the area are aware of the danger in the area outlined in red below plus the red area outlined at 2:50pm  In addition to "several strong tornadoes," hail to 4.8" in diameter is forecast along with wind gusts to 80 mph. Now is the time for persons living in mobile homes, manufactured homes and those with mobility issues should be making plans!!  Do not wait until a tornado warn
Read more

Updated Freezing Rain and Heavy Rain Forecast

By -
Image
Note: An Updated Forecast is Available HERE Freezing Rain The National Weather Service has now issued winter weather advisories, two warnings and a watch. It may be a bit too large but, when it comes to freezing rain and slick roads, caution is usually the better course of action.  Here's a color code: Deep purple is an ice storm warning; serious condition where power outages are possible. Pink is a winter storm warning for significant icing. Deep green is a winter storm watch. I don't know why this is still a watch. If I were on the forecast desk I would have a winter storm warning for icing.  Dark blue is a winter weather advisory, a lesser condition, for icing.  Here is a view of the entire watch/warning/advisory area. The small area of green in Illinois is for flooding and, in Nebraska, for snow.  Here is a forecast of freezing rain amounts; totals to 6am Tuesday.  Color codes: Yellow is 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Power outages may occur in this areas. Deep blue is 0.1 to .25 inc
Read more