Two major losses today, Those of you who have read Warnings  know that Joe Audsley was the hero of the Ruskin Heights tornado. It was Joe who put the Weather Bureau (now National Weather Service) into the tornado warning business. Joe lost his wife of 65 years, Lee, today. Photo of Lee and Joe Audsley: And, my friend, Bob Barry, Sr. died yesterday . Bob was the sports director at WKY TV, my first TV station, as well as the "Voice of the Oklahoma Sooners" for many years. Again, if you have read Warnings  and Bob's name seems familiar, Kathleen and I had him over to our apartment for dinner on June 7, 1974, the night before "TV Weather Grew Up." It was Bob who encouraged me to explain -- the night before -- that I expected major tornadoes the next day. This was simply not done by meteorologists in 1974. Kathleen and I extend our deep sympathy and best wishes to Joe and his family and to Bob's two sons and the rest of his family.

The weather pattern is again becoming more favorable for rain in the southern Plains. Here is the ECMRF model's rainfall forecast for the next ten days. Data via AccuWeather's PRO site. click to enlarge Addition: Winter storm watch as far southeast as western Kansas. Winter storm warning (pink) in much of southern Wyoming.

Screen capture from KWCH TV With the various "occupy" movements (including two here in Wichita, of all places), I think this morsel of wisdom from The Rockford Files  starring James Garner is appropriate:

This is, apparently, a serious news story: SAN LUIS VALLEY — If aphids measured more than a quarter of an inch and had a pair of thumbs, the Valley’s human population would not have survived summer 2011. Details here .

Last week, I posted on the Berkeley BEST Project's publicized (but not peer-reviewed) findings that the earth was warming faster than some other studies indicated. I also linked to two comments from statisticians that found BEST's statistical methodology wanting. If you follow the blogosphere pertaining to atmospheric and climate science the last week, you've watched a firestorm develop over what appears to be a misleading presentation of BEST's own data. London "Daily Mail" graphic, click to enlarge. Note the time scales are different on the two two graphs. The lower graph plots temperatures the last ten years. It seems that BEST's own raw data shows that the earth stopped warming the last dozen years as I, and even many pro-global warming climate scientists , have observed. This seems to contract BEST's PR about global warming "accelerating." The Daily Mail's story is here . Judy Curry comments here . So far, nothing I have

Sheldon of The Big Bang Theory  goes to a Halloween party as "the Doppler effect."  Happy Halloween!!!

...for a very nice article about the yesterday's Weather Festival.

Click to see full resolution image. Taken by NASA earth observing satellite earlier today. Whiter = heavier snow cover. The unfrozen Hudson River shows up nicely from top center south to where it empties into New York Harbor down the west side of Manhattan. ADDITION: 4 million are now said to be without power.

A sample of headlines: Yale Daily News : Darien Times : Fox News : This is why I write postings like the one immediately below. Journalists are constantly misrepresenting weather forecasts as far less accurate than they are.

My mentor, Don Whitman, a forecaster with the National Weather Service, taught me the importance of getting the forecast of the first snow of the season correct. As Don used to say, "If you get the first one wrong, people remember it all winter." The challenge is that temperatures are often marginal during the first snow of the season so it has always been especially difficult to get the first snow of the season right.   So, it is amazing how good the forecasts were of the just-ended record snow storm in the East.  AccuWeather started talking about it Thursday and I posted about the pending storm on this blog Friday at 8:57am -- about 22 hours before the heaviest snow began falling.  Hat tip: AccuWeather's Jesse Ferrell; click to enlarge Later Friday, I (along with others) posted: "widespread power failures are likely." I also posted, "Just in case, here is my Airline Survival Guide ." Rule #1 in the Guide is to avoid the problem by not flying i

The real Apollo 13 on display   Frequent readers of "Meteorological Musings" know what a fan I am of the Kansas Cosmosphere , generally thought to be the second best space museum in the world. It is second only to the Smithsonian's Air & Space Museum. There is an encore event surrounding Sean Casey's IMAX movie Tornado Alley  this Friday and Saturday. Here is the schedule: Friday, Nov. 4 4 pm.   Sean Casey Presentation, with Q&A, “Storm Chasing Adventures” 4:45 pm.   Drawing for TIV2 ride winners followed by rides. Saturday, Nov. 5 2:30  pm.  Author and AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions Senior Vice President Mike Smith presents “Warnings Save Lives: A Look Back at Greensburg, Udall and Joplin.” 3 pm.   Book sale and signing with Mike Smith, “Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the  Weather.” 4 pm.   Sean Casey Presentation, with Q&A, “Storm Chasing Adventures” 4:45 pm.   Drawing for TIV2 ride winners followed by rides. The Cosmosphere is

click to enlarge Just northwest of NYC, via Instapundit .

Mindy and I had a terrific day at the National Weather Festival in Norman. It was Vegas for weather aficionados. It was also the biggest book sale and signing ever  for Warnings . Eighty books were sold! Photos by Mindy Cook.  Click to enlarge. My favorite part was seeing so many old friends and making so many new ones, including our great friend Cat Taylor and students involved in weather safety demonstrations. Cat is passionate about her pageant platform of storm safety and was selling tiaras to raise money to enlarge the education effort. In a nod to the movie Twister, our table was near the "Flying Cow" Cafe in the Weather Center building. In Warnings  I describe several cows that ended up far from home thanks to tornadoes. Of course, with advanced warnings, there is no need for cows to become airborne any more. Outside, there were numerous specialized vehicles used for storm chasing and reporting along with rescue and operations when disasters strike. Her

More from AccuWeather . UPDATE:  NYC has recorded its earliest-ever 1" of snow...still snowing. 2nd UPDATE: Newark has reported an early season record of 3.8".

Roger Pielke, Jr. has a wonderful essay on scientists playing at politics. I encourage you to read the whole thing. Two excerpts: For instance, this roundtable was apparently motivated by Texas Gov. Rick Perry taking issue with aspects of climate science that many in the research community have long viewed to be settled science, with only a few outliers taking issue. Perry's views prompted rebukes from scientists and fueled reverberations through the blogosphere's echo-chambers for weeks. Yet in sharp contrast, when President Barack Obama sought to explain the recent Texas drought as a consequence of human-caused climate change, few (if any) of those same scientists found fault with his views, despite the overwhelming consensus (also disputed by a few outlier voices) that individual events cannot be attributed to the human influence on climate because such changes are observed as statistics that play out over several decades and longer. The selective behavior goes to proces

At this ridiculous hour, Mindy and I are on our way to Norman for the National Weather Festival . She is driving since she is an early riser. This is the one and only time to get Warnings  in hardcover for $10 (tax included). We take checks and cash. The book has 5-star ratings at both Amazon and B&N and has received superb reviews. The reason for the greatly reduced price is because of the large number of students expected to attend. If you'll remember, inspiring the next generation of scientists was one of the reasons I wrote the book. Really looking forward to seeing everyone!

Here is a map of forecast snowfall accumulation from midnight to 4pm EDT. Note: These are not "storm totals" as the snow is forecast to continue beyond 4pm in some areas. This is intended to help you plan your day. click to enlarge From WattsUpWithThat: New York has received measurable snow before Halloween only 3 times since 1869. These events were never more than one inch. If the forecast holds, this would be the earliest 1″ snowfall in New York City since the Civil War.

I've done some tweaking to the new "North American Model" output. This is my forecast of snowfall (not necessarily snow accumulation) until 8pm EDT tomorrow evening. Widespread power failures likely in red and gray areas. Just in case, here is my Airline Survival Guide . 

This is the snow accumulation forecast between now and 8am EDT Saturday.

If you are in the area where AccuWeather is forecasting heavy snow , please prepare accordingly.

Tomorrow is the big day: From 9am to 1pm is the National Weather Festival in Norman, OK at the Weather Center off Highway 9 on OU's south campus. It is your only chance to purchase a copy of Warnings  in hardcover for $10. We accept cash and checks. Mindy and I will see you there!

I've not said much about the developing Northeast snow storm because AccuWeather is doing its normal outstanding job covering it. As of this moment, there are no significant flight delays. However, that will likely change this afternoon as the storm approaches the area. The accumulating snow should begin late tonight.

Even though sports is one of the "official" topics of this blog, I don't frequently write about it because it so often routine. Last night's Game Six of the World Series was anything but. The unique thing about baseball is, as Yogi Berra so eloquently put it,  It Ain't Over, 'Till It's Over Twice, in both the bottom of the ninth and tenth innings, the Rangers were one strike -- one strike -- away from winning their first World Championship. Yet, the Cardinals came back with a walk-off home run in the bottom of the 11th to force Game 7 tonight. An amazing game. 

This important polar orbiting weather satellite is scheduled for launch today. Here is a video show its construction. UPDATE:  The launch was a success. CNN video here .

I taught all three of my children, catch a fly ball with two hands!!!   Over and over, I taught them how important it was. photo of Fox Sports from my television screen moments ago Apparently, you can play third base in the World Series without observing that basic bit of baseball. UPDATE: 11:42PM, Cardinals win it 10-9 after 11 innings. It was an amazing game, one of the best I have ever seen!

...and Roger Pielke, Sr. has a wonderful post about what the pro-GW folks have to say about the lack of warming . What is fascinating to me the arrogance of some of these comments. It is the skeptics who have been pointing out the ever-increasing divergence between the pro-GW IPCC's forecasts and reality. Yet these scientists keep treating the skeptics with scorn. I believe global warming is a small problem when all of its pluses and minuses are computed.  I readily acknowledge I could be wrong as no one knows that the earth's heat content will look like in 5, let alone 50, years. It is easy to issue "highly likely" forecasts of the climate 100 years from now. No adult will be around to see how well that forecast worked out. One reason so many meteorologists view the dogmatic statements about the state of the atmosphere in 100 years is that Mother Nature frequently keeps us humble since our forecasts are subjected to public scrutiny every day. ADDITION 8:00pm.

The clusters of snowflakes on the current weather map shows moderate intensity falling snow in northwest Texas.  AccuWeather has details .

Above is the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center that shows Tropical Storm Rina making landfall near Cancun then hanging around the next few days. Serious beach erosion is likely along with heavy rains.

We will be in the atrium of the National Weather Center just off Highway 9 in Norman Saturday from 9 to 1. I be autographing and selling copies of Warnings  in hardcover for $10 each. This is a one-time opportunity. Look forward to seeing you there!

We have talked several times on this blog about how the Joplin tornado was invisible from the city as it approached. While attending the National Weather Assn. meeting in Birmingham last week, I learned much more about the Cullman, Ala. tornado, a storm I had not heard much about.  So, I decided to look up some of the video on the web. There are many, but I want concentrate on this one: The comment I want to focus on is, "its breaking up," which is stated while this is on the screen: The photographer makes that statement when the bottom of the funnel seems to disappear. This was likely because some dry air was ingested into the storm and caused the cloudy bottom of the funnel to briefly dissipate. However, the tornado is still  extremely  dangerous because, as you see, it is not only picking up objects, it is spinning out debris. There is no correlation between the appearance of a tornado and its intensity. Tornadoes are very dangerous and the eye is often mislead

I'm very concerned about the quality of teaching of science and technology at all levels. So are Bill and Melinda Gates and they offer some wonderful suggestions .

Why did the Hindenburg explode? Because the U.S. government refused to sell Kansas helium to Germany. That and many other interesting items about helium from Dan Voorhis at The Wichita Eagle. 

Interesting and useful article from the Wall Street Journal . 

Many have read Dr. Richard Muller's op-ed in Friday's Wall Street Journal that discusses the Berkeley (BEST) project's re-analysis of land temperatures. It appears to find that temperatures are rising more quickly than originally thought for "the last 50 years." Please let me state some points of agreement with Dr. Muller's piece: Hurricane frequency is not increasing. Storms are not getting worse His analysis was for land temperatures only. The more important metric is ocean heat content and his project did not look at that.  Now, where we may differ: First, I don't know of a single scientist that does not believe temperatures have risen the last 50 years. Of course, they have. I frequently comment in my global warming presentations that atmospheric scientists are not sure exactly how much. Dr. Muller seems to agree when he says, The temperature-station quality is largely awful. The most important stations in the U.S. are included in the Depart

Take a look at the huge hailstones that passed just northwest of Norman while 80,000 were waiting out the weather delay.

The first snow of the season forecast for the Denver area. AccuWeather has details.

The December issue of Trains  will be out next week. I have an advance copy because AccuWeather's Steve Pryor and I helped them put together their "Map of the Month." This map shows the areas where the weather is typically worst on U.S. railroads. If you pick up the magazine, don't miss Don Philips' column on DHS and its ridiculous crusade against photography on page 9. Yes, even I have been approached and questioned by a policeman while taking train pictures. You might also have heard the news that the TSA is expanding its program of stopping vehicles on the nation's highways . You used to be able to avoid the TSA by not flying. That is no longer the case. As much as I'd like to say it is just the TSA doing this it is not: get a load of this quote from Long Beach, California: Captain Steven M. Roller of the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department has told   Long Beach Post   that it is standard practice to detain and pat down photographers fo

Got a call Saturday afternoon from a friend headed to Munich telling me how vital my Airport Survival Guide was to getting him out of a real jam. It is the 6th most popular posting in the history of this blog. If you've never read it, click here . Print it out and keep it with your travel kit.

More from AccuWeather Regional Radar at 11:10pm. I expect these storms will bring needed rain to north central Texas BUT they are still producing large hail and strong winds. I believe they will still be rather stout when they reach the Metroplex. Cardinals won game 3, 16-7. 11:20pm: Unconfirmed report of damage in the Paul's Valley, OK area from these storms.

St. Louis Cardinals:  16 Oklahoma Sooners: 14 Hmmm. Hat tip: Stan Finger.

Above is the AccuWeather regional radar as of 10:15pm central time. The storms are about three hours away. The game should be fine except if it goes deep into extra innings. UPDATE: 10:29pm. Tornado warning issued for Carter, Jefferson and Stephens Co., OK, due to strong rotation near Loco. Moving SSE.

The weather should be letting up at Gaylord Family Stadium shortly. The NCAA has a rule that the lightning must be at least six miles away. So, my game resumption time of 8:40-8:45pm CDT is still looking good.

They should be fine unless the game goes into extra innings.

Heavy rain, strong winds and cloud-to-ground lightning are occurring in the area with a severe thunderstorm warning in effect. I expect that they would be able to kick off around 8:40pm Central.

Baseball-sized hail reported with the purple area northwest of Norman (between the Canadian River and the I-44 symbol). It is moving southeast and will come close to Norman. Game continues in weather delay.

Gaylord Family Stadium location marked by a purple square ABC Sports is reporting the delay will be "about a half hour." Unfortunately, they are incorrect. There is a second large storm northwest of the stadium moving southeast. I doubt the game will start before 8:30.

A severe thunderstorm with very large hail is moving east southeast toward the Gaylord Family Stadium where the Sooners are scheduled to kick off against Texas Tech at 7:05pm. It is highly likely there will be a delay!  Stadium location marked with a square.

Very strong thunderstorms have developed across Oklahoma as of 6:10pm and they are moving east southeast. These particular storms are not moving toward Arlington (halfway between Ft. Worth and Dallas). However, the atmosphere over north central Texas continues to be conducive for thunderstorm development. So, thunderstorms could develop and affect the game after about the 5th inning.

The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center says there is a slight risk of severe (large hail and/or damaging winds) thunderstorms in Arlington, Texas (just west of Dallas) during tonight's Game 3 of the World Series. AccuWeather has details.

Dr. Judith Curry is a full-time, well-credentialed, climate scientist. She has written a review of Donna Laframboise's new book, The Delinquent Teenager , a highly-critical critique of the IPCC. Some highlights of Judy's review : ...Overall, Donna Laframboise is to be congratulated for writing an important book.   So, how will this book be received by the climate establishment?  First, I suspect that they will attempt to smear Laframboise as a denier.  This is not the case.  Her prime motivation seems to be a concern about free speech; she has a long standing involvement in free speech issues in Canada.  Second, people will pick apart some of the minor points that are arguably suboptimal interpretations. . In terms of the broader audience, I have to say that I hope that this book leads to the discontinuation of the IPCC after the AR5 report (which is already well underway, and is arguably sufficiently tarnished that it is likely to have much less influence than previous

click to enlarge More The Other Coast here .

Mike was in New York this week speaking at the BOMA conference at the Grand Hyatt on Hurricane Irene and other possible weather realated disasters that could potentially affect the city. Mike brings leading-edge weather science and a knowledge of business together to make him the "go-to" expert when disaster strikes. Mike was invited to address the NYC chapter of the Building Owners and Managers Assn. His goal was to assist business owners in turning potential catastrophes into a mere inconveniences through saving lives, property and assets. The weather-related effects on the U.S. economy reached a half trillion dollars in 2010 and 2011 is running even higher. Mike gives business owners the information they need so that they will not be caught unprepared when extreme weather threatens. Mike also signed his book Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather (Greenleaf 2010).