Shortly after midnight, National Weather Service offices will be releasing their July climatological data summaries and it will be the hottest July ever at a number of them. I'll have more on that tomorrow.

I'm in Anaheim for the National Speaker's Association annual meeting and am finding it fascinating. Lots of great ideas here. Also, I'm well known for bringing unusual weather with me and today is no exception. We have thunderstorms in Orange Co. and the surrounding area. You're welcome Southern California!

Kathleen told me that radio talk show host Laura Ingraham visited Kansas City on her book tour earlier this week and visited Jack's Stack Bar-B-Que and raved about it. Jack's Stack is my favorite bar-b-que anywhere. So, if you are in KC or if you wish to order some delivered to your town it gets 5-stars from me.

Many of us were hoping that Tropical Storm Don would bring generous rains to drought-stricken Texas. Unfortunately, the dry air over the Lone Star State, ingested into the storm, caused Don to weaken before even reaching land. There will be some rain from Don but it will not be widespread or heavy. NOAA satellite image via University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Score: Drought 1, Tropics 0. 

When I first heard about this, I thought it was a joke. I wish. The National Science Foundation funding a study in erotic nouns? The title of the 'scientific' paper in question: That’s What She Said: Double Entendre Identification From the paper's abstract: Humor identification is a hard natural lan-   guage understanding problem. We identify   a subproblem — the “that’s what she said”   problem — with two distinguishing character-   istics: (1) use of nouns that are euphemisms   for sexually explicit nouns and (2) structure   common in the erotic domain. You get the idea, there are other items that are not appropriate for a family blog. Here is the NSF grant information: Thismaterial isbasedupon worksupported   by the National Science Foundation Graduate Re-   search Fellowship under Grant #DGE-0718124 and   under Grant #0937060 This has nothing to do with basic science (the charter of NSF) and it is especially galling in an era of huge federal budget defici

In Perspective: Right Now, Apple Has More Cash On Hand Than Treasury the rest of the story from NPR .

One of the stars of "The Big Theory" was nearly stuck by lightning. My friend Jesse Ferrel has details .

From the Warnings Facebook Page: Thanks Kenny and Ian!

I'm pleased to announce that Ms. Mindy Cook is the new marketing director for Mike Smith Enterprises, LLC . If you are looking for professional speaking, purchasing bulk copies of Warnings,  or weather-related photography, please give Mindy a call. Mindy will be blogging here from time to time.

I forgot to mention... as part of the High Plains Conference, there will be Chaser Meet and Greet in the north parking lot of the Wichita Marriott on Saturday morning  noon to 3pm (August 6). There will be number of chase vehicles and you can ask your storm chasing questions. There is no charge for this event.

The High Plains Conference of meteorologists and weather enthusiasts starts at this time next week. It will be at the Wichita Marriott at Webb Rd. and U.S. 400/54 in east Wichita. I'll be the kickoff speaker. Come and join us!  Details here .

AccuWeather has details on Tropical Storm Don which is likely to move into Texas Friday evening. Don is likely to cause heavy rain, which is desperately needed, in south Texas. Wind speeds will probably not be high enough to cause major damage. Speaking of the heat and drought, have you noticed that when NYC and D.C. were above 100° last week it led the national news? Now, while much of the central and southern U.S. continue to broil, it is off the front pages. But, the effects of the drought and heat in the central U.S. will likely be more significant than the heat in the East. Wichita Eagle photo of Harper Co., Kansas cornfield. Photo by Fernando Salazar I have driven, extensively, in Kansas, southeast Nebraska, and along the I-35 corridor in Oklahoma south to Dallas. I've never seen the crops in worse shape to the south of I-70. It is likely the drought will bring higher food prices. And, at the Wichita airport, a partial failure of the air conditioning system is keep

The National Junior Olympics is being held in Wichita and we are thrilled to have them. Only one problem: The high temperature was 111° today. That is not the heat index, that was the temperature. The normal high temperature for this date is 94°. One of the TV stations interviewed several parents and the ones from Arizona thought it was fine but the folks visiting from Colorado were not thrilled. We are sorry we are having this awful heat wave.

A microburst is descending in the rain shaft at right.  I'm enjoying dinner and blogging at one of my favorite restaurants, the Grand Central Cafe in Cottonwood Falls. About an hour and a half ago, when I was south of Manhattan, I got some views of a microburst hitting the ground. That is it just reaching the ground, the rain shaft at the right side of the photo above. The photo below shows the winds causing the rain shaft to spread to the north and south near the ground. The radar shows a small cell to my west (I'm at the blue "bullseye"). The Doppler radar winds show the distinct pattern of the winds spreading out to the north and south (arrows) associated with a microburst. I have annotated the second photo to show the wind flow in the microburst.

Apparently, my Twitter account got hacked and you got diet advice in my name.  Sorry about that! I believe the problem has been fixed.

Sheryl Crow is a native Missourian. By auctioning a vintage car, she hopes to be able to donate several hundred thousand dollars to Joplin's recovery. Details here .

Since at least 1955, meteorologists have periodically looked at whether there is a reliable correlation between tornadoes and lightning and whether lightning can be used to predict where tornadoes might occur. Above is a video of lightning associated with the record tornado outbreak on April 27th. Here is the description from NOAA: On April 25-28, 2011, a large outbreak of over 300 tornadoes wreaked havoc in much of the Southeast United States. It is listed by NOAA as the fourth deadliest outbreak in United States history, and as the year with the highest EF4 and EF5 tornadoes to date. (Read more about the events of April 27 here.) Due to intense updrafts inside tornado-forming supercell storms, the lightning that occurs within clouds that are high above the ground tends to increase and the cloud-to-ground lightning strikes tend to decrease before the tornado actually forms. Knowing that a storm has a rapid increase of in-cloud lightning activity is a warning sign of severe weath

An Air Force hurricane hunter is going to investigate the system west east of Cancun. It will likely be named a tropical depression later today. It is currently moving west northwest.

Presented here .

...not far from the point of origin of the June 1 Springfield tornado. Tornado warning is in red. UPDATE: Some damage around Springfield with power lines and tree limbs down. Hail stones to 1" in diameter were reported. So far (6:22pm Eastern) no tornado damage reported.

The National Hurricane Center is watching an area of low pressure in the far western Caribbean. They are giving it a 30% of turning into a tropical cyclone.

At Saturday's American Weather Conference, the director of the National Hurricane Center, Bill Read, had two points in his presentation I wish to share with Meteorological Musings readers. In the middle 1970's the average error in a hurricane forecast at 72 hours was 410 miles. In 2010, it was 130 miles. That is a remarkable improvement. In the part of the United States with the highest frequency for fires, there is a 1 in 500 chance of a home fire. In other areas, the probability of a fire is less. Across the U.S. as a whole, the chance of a home being damaged in a flood is 1 in 100. Yet, mortgagers require fire insurance. They do not require flood insurance if the statistical probability of a flood at your location is one in 125. Why?

A drought of major proportions continues unabated. In many areas, it is the worst since the 1950's. For those interested, Dr. Joe D'Aleo has a scientific explanation . Via: WattsUpWithThat

The sixth most popular posting in the history of this blog is my Airline Crisis Survival Guide which tells people how to avoid major weather-related airline difficulties and, if you find yourself in one anyway, how to get out of it. Yesterday (Sunday), I found myself dealing with one of O'Hare's (ORD) many meltdowns returning from the American Weather Conference in Baltimore. By the way, I had a wonderful time and I want to thank the organizers for inviting me! Some background: Saturday, persistent thunderstorms caused flooding and numerous flight cancellations at ORD so flights were already full. I had been concerned Saturday evening about Sunday's weather in Chicago. So, the first thing I did was see if I could avoid it. I was on United. I could get to Denver, but the flights back to Wichita were full. I'd have to standby.  Houston wouldn't have gotten me home until late Sunday evening and I'm leaving again this morning, so that didn't work. So, I

This is one of the best books I have read in years. Because there is quite a surprise (at least to me) at the end, I don't want to give a detailed review. Suffice to say, if you like a great story (narrative non-fiction), you'll love this book.

A great story about the men who photographed the Space Shuttle program.

Yellow = elevated risk of severe thunderstorms. NOAA Storm Prediction Center AccuWeather has the details.

Here is a photo essay on the incredible amount of training done by the Apollo astronauts. You would have had to have The Right Stuff to get through it!

Unless I miscalculated, the NWS heat index at BWI Airport was 117° when I was unloading the car (the hotel is in sight of the airport). I thought it was extremely hot. Given the fact that we are nearly at sea level makes it worse (more atmosphere pressing down). Whew... The hotel has put complimentary water and lemonade in the lobby which is very much appreciated. UPDATE: Baltimore's Fox 45 is reporting the downtown Baltimore/Inner Harbor heat index was 125° at 1pm. That is the highest heat index I have ever seen -- anywhere. The 10pm heat index is still 108°! PLEASE take it easy in this heat. If you have to be outside, drink water plus something like Gatorade.

You are probably wondering why I'm holding my camera at arm's length to take a photo of myself. It is because I have crossed into West Virginia on my way to the American Weather Conference in Baltimore. I have a goal of visiting every state and the Mountain State is my 48th. Just have Montana and Idaho to go! I'm now in Baltimore and I'll be speaking tomorrow afternoon. Please introduce yourself if you are attending and I'd be happy to sign your copy of Warnings. 

Britain's Hadley Center's (PRO-global warming group) world temperatures for the last twenty years. There has been no warming since 1998. If you want to watch a one hour debate over global warming, it is here: (I watched the debate so you don't have to) Interestingly, the pro-global warming advocate, Richard Dennis', arguments are almost entirely "who" believes in global warming (watch for yourself). Lord Monckton's anti-global warming arguments are based on scientific points and discusses the scientific method in climate science. Mr. Dennis is the former science advisor to the Prime Minister. Lord Monckton is the former science advisor to Margaret Thatcher and has published one global warming paper in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. Most tellingly, Mr. Dennis tells us, over and over, global warming "is occurring" (present tense). As I keep pointing out, temperatures have not warmed in over a decade. The graph proving that is at

According to AccuWeather , the worst in 16 years.

I think the airlines just enjoy seeing how far they can push the public. See also the posting below.  American AAdvantage has changed its fees to book an award ticket within 21 days of departure. Previously, the fee to book an award flight between seven and 20 days prior to departure was $50 and the fee to book an award within six days was $100. As of Aug. 25, 2011, the airline will charge a $75 fee for all award flights issued 20 days to two hours prior to departure. Members who book flights a week out are now paying $25 less and members who book two to three weeks out are paying $25 more. The fee for additional tickets booked at the same time from the same account has also increased from $25 to $75. So if an AAdvantage member books three tickets two weeks prior to departure, the close-in booking fee will be $225 total compared to the $100 that would have been charged under the old fee schedule.

Yesterday, on the leg back from a hellish journey, I realized that US airlines are now halfway between Portuguese railways of old and the old USSR. And it makes me wonder: what is going on here? Air travel became a nightmare around 2002.  I thought it was because the airline industry was recovering from a severe blow and restructuring, and it would get better. I was wrong. I was actually seeing the airline at the best it would be in the next ten years. And every year after it gets worse. The entire essay, from Sarah Hoyt, is here . As a very frequent flier, I agree with all of this. In fact, I often refer to America's "third world airline system." What prompted the issues in question was a hailstorm in Denver (Frontier's hub) that knocked out a quarter of Frontier's fleet. Companies like AccuWeather can mitigate the effects of these storms saving (literally) tens of millions but that is not the purpose of this post. Sarah goes on to say, No, the problem

A special meeting of the  United Nations  security council is due to consider whether to expand its mission to keep the peace in an era of  climate change . Small island states, which could disappear beneath rising seas, are pushing the security council to intervene to combat the threat to their existence. There has been talk, meanwhile, of a new environmental peacekeeping force – green helmets – which could step into conflicts caused by shrinking resources. Just when you believe the 'global warming' discussion cannot get any more surreal, now the United Nations wants "global warming peacekeepers." The full story is here . Those of us of a certain age remember "Saturday Night Live's" parody of the Secret Service protecting Gerald Ford when he was being clumsy. When Ford tripped coming down the stairs while exiting an airplane, SNL ended the report, "the Secret Service wrestled the stairs to the ground." So, I have visions of the United Na

Heart warming news .

Below, I talk about the huge number of items manufactured in Kansas. If you haven't read it, please check it out...you'll be surprised. Now, animal control in the Wichita suburb are Derby are trying to catch an alligator .

The Bookworm Society had a contest where the prize was a copy of Warnings . Congratulations to Dorine in Washington and Maria in New Jersey. The books are in the mail.

I've received several comments about the posting below pertaining to "weatherman as hero" mentioning meteorologist James Spann. Yes, he is terrific. The NYT article says, In Alabama, Gov. Robert Bentley called  James Spann , the rock star of meteorology in the state, a hero for his role when an unprecedented string of tornadoes bore down there this spring and killed nearly 250 people. Without the rapid warnings Mr. Spann sent out via Twitter, Internet streams and television, surely more lives would have been lost. Agree 100%. I've watched James (via internet) during severe weather outbreaks and he is excellent. Glenn and James are two of numerous outstanding meteorologists saving lives throughout the United States.

This from a reader in Ohio, I thought your book was extrememly interesting and I couldn't put it down.  It had great facts and really painted the picture of what forecasters went thru and all of the challenges involved in the weather business. If you would like to feel  what it is like to be in a forecast center when lives are on the line, you'll love reading Warnings  like the thousands who have read it so far. It is also available for Kindle and Nook . If you have a copy, I'd be happy to autograph it for you at the American Weather Conference Saturday and I will also have copies available for sale.

From The New York Times, ATLANTA — One evening in April, Tina Eller had the television on. Glenn Burns, the steely chief meteorologist for WSB-TV, said a tornado was three minutes away from slamming into her community. Mr. Burns’s instructions were simple: Take cover... ...Every room in the house was wrecked, except the space that held her family. “It was that warning we got from him that got us into the closet on time,” she said. “I never would have lived through it.” As the nation moves through a year of remarkable floods, drought and its deadliest tornado season in half a century, the broadcast meteorologist has emerged as an unlikely hero. The entire article is here . Hmmm. Meteorologist as hero. Someone should write a book about that . Hat tip: Patrick Clyne Note: Fixed broken link

We are celebrating the state's 150th anniversary this year. Here is a fascinating article by a great writer, Beccy Tanner. Enjoy!

Kathleen and I look forward to each new episode of the "Big Bang Theory." I especially like it because I went to school with people just like Sheldon and his gang. In fact, I have to admit there was a time that, as a member of the University of Oklahoma's Engineer's Club, I thought young ladies would be impressed with the size of the slide rule I had attached to my belt. I think the theme from BBT is very clever. There is the full version from the Bare Naked Ladies: And, yes, I still have the slide rule upstairs in the Mike Smith Enterprises office. 

At the moment we have thunderstorm cluster moving toward Chicago and a line of thunderstorms moving southeast toward NYC and Boston. AccuWeather radar With severe thunderstorms (yellow) forecast over much of the northeast quarter of the U.S. today, expect widespread delays by this afternoon that will ripple outside of the region. Be proactive. Airline Crisis Survival Guide is here .

We've all seen the classic New Yorker's " View of the World." Now, we have "Map of the U.S. as Drawn by a New Yorker." click to enlarge And, yes, I'm located in the left-hand "state that has Kansas City." For enlarged version, go here . For more interesting charts, etc., go here .

Details here .

Really looking forward to the American Weather Conference which starts Friday in Baltimore. I'll be speaking Saturday afternoon. Please join us !

Kansas City Star From time to time, I have talked about the things that had to be left out of Warnings . My first draft would have resulted in a book of more than 500 pages. Neither I, my editor, or my publisher thought people would want to read a book that long. One of the things that was left out of the book was the story of the week I decided to create WeatherData. Throughout the summer of 1981, I had been in negotiations with my employer, KTVI of St. Louis, on a new contract. The contract I had would run out in August. I also had an offer to go back to Wichita that would result in me fulfilling my ultimate career goal of starting a commercial weather company. After a long period of discussions, I decided to return to Wichita. I called my parents with the news on Tuesday, July 14. Dad told me they thought I had made the right decision and, while they were invited to a "tea dance" with some friends Friday evening (17th), they would cancel and come to celebrate the

Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center. Details from AccuWeather . The storm is not an imminent threat to Florida but should be watched as it should become a tropical storm over the next few days.

Below, I have a posting that talks about " wall clouds " and their association to tornadoes. Here is an excellent video from North Dakota yesterday (in the same general area where a tornado warning is in effect now) that shows the speed/scale of rotation in a wall cloud in relation to a tornado. Viewing this video will be helpful when assessing whether rotation threatens you in the absence of a tornado warning. Video by Roger Hill via YouTube. Hat tip: Tim Marshall and Will Wilkens

Quick update to the posting below. A tornado (red) and a severe thunderstorm watch (blue) have already  been issued with a tornado warning in effect for the supercell thunderstorm in eastern North Dakota. Radar at 12:52pm, Hook echo (potential tornado) indicated by arrow.

Looks like the North Central and Northeast United States will have active weather later today and tomorrow. Here is tomorrow's outlook. If you are going to be flying tomorrow, the widespread thunderstorms forecast for several major cities and hubs has the potential to disrupt flights across the country. If you are flying tomorrow, be proactive. Here is my Airline Crisis Survival Guide .

UPDATE: 1:20pm, the National Hurricane Center has upped the probability of development and is sending a hurricane hunter aircraft to investigate the system. --- original posting --- Earlier this week, I wrote, " It's Too Quiet Out There ," a posting about the lack of weather in the tropics which suggested it would be a good time to check hurricane preparations. I'm not liking the look of this system off Florida. While not even a tropical cyclone (TC < Tropical Storm), it is showing at least some signs of development. NCAR image from 12:15pm CDT Please make sure you have your bottled water, bleach (for water purification), batteries, etc. From about now through early October we are in the higher probability period for hurricanes and tropical storms. AccuWeather is monitoring the situation . Our hurricane/tropics page is here .

Today is "National Ice Cream Day" as proclaimed by Ronald Reagan in 1984. With the widespread heatwave, ice cream seems an especially good idea. Here are some deals for the day.

[I'm bumping this back up to the top because of the worldwide interest it has received and because of Dr. Judy Curry's contribution to the conversation I have added at the end.] Once we board the train of climate science, there is no alternative to taking it wherever it may go. ---- Dr. Gary Gutting,  New York Times, July 12, 2011 I genuinely dislike writing so often about 'global warming.' It is a topic that has caused much dissention and distraction in meteorology from where we should focusing (i.e., more accurate forecasts and warnings and better ways to use both to save lives and dollars). It also distracts us from more urgent and solvable environmental problems . However, as a genuine atmospheric scientist, I feel an obligation to speak out when I read something that is terribly wrong (and, especially, if it comes from an authoritative source). One of those were called to my attention in yesterday's New York Times.  In a piece called, " On Exper

...from the F-5 tornado that destroyed the town in May, 2007. Ground was broken yesterday for the new state-of-the-art theatre. The Wichita Eagle  has details .

While I certainly do not condone this  (the classic "man bites dog" story), it is easy to understand the level of frustration out there. It is interesting she was charged with "sexual assault." That's what I thought the TSA was doing to us! A very significant part of the problem is that there is no logic or reasoning when you go into the security area -- and it is very frustrating. Take yesterday... When I travel, I take a small MacBook Air which is less than half of the size (by volume) of a standard laptop. It does not have an internal hard drive. According to the TSA's web site , Electronic items smaller than the standard sized laptop should not need to be removed from your bag or their cases. It’s that simple. When going through security at Boston's Logan Airport yesterday, the laptop was pulled out of my case (fine), swabbed for bomb chemicals (fine), put back through the X-ray again (fine). I do not dispute the TSA's right to do those t

A few people got slightly concerned on my flight from Nashville to Charlotte when the cabin appeared to fill with smoke. Actually, what was flowing into the cabin was the equivalent of "seeing your breath" in the winter. The outside warm, humid air was chilled by the airplane's cooling system and the moisture in the air condensed into a cloud/fog. It is harmless.

Details here . Great news if it can be done on a large scale.

AccuWeather has details.

I have been on the road this entire week giving weather risk mitigation seminars. As recently as yesterday, I was asked if this year's unusually intense tornado season was due to global warming. I have already discussed that I believe the answer is "no." That posting also cites Dr. Judy Curry's belief the answer is no.  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration concurs and says,   So far, we have not been able to link any of the major causes of the tornado outbreak to global warming. Barring a detection of change, a claim of attribution (to human impacts) is thus problematic... But, still, the question persists. So, I would like to cite some preliminary  work done by Drs. Roger Pielke, Jr., Kevin Simmons, and Daniel Sutter comparing the tornado season of 2011 to records since 1950 when the Weather Bureau (now National Weather Service) began to keep comprehensive records of tornado occurrences. The graph below is from Simmons and Sutter and it show