Last Update of the Evening
I'm signing off for the night. Here are some thoughts that might be useful...
The full extent of the damage and injuries with the Iowa tornadoes is unknown at this time and likely till not be known until mid- to late Sunday morning. There is a map of the tornadoes' path in the posting below.
Here is the map of the greatest risk area I posted at 9:16am that encompassed northwest Iowa.
The tornado watch was out well in advance of the storms (scroll down). We define "significant" tornadoes as those of F-2 intensity or greater. There is a tool that helps us forecast where strong tornadoes may occur and it signaled that northwest Iowa was at risk (we look for values of more than 1, these were 6+). Storm chasers used this information to get into position to report on the storms and, when damage occurred, to help find and rescue the injured.
Why am I writing this? Because if you go to the WattsUpWithThat blog and read Why Are Weather Forecasts So Bad? and the comments from earlier today, you'll learn that many people have the mistaken impression that meteorologists 'never get it right.' While that is often true with monthly and seasonal forecasting, our short term forecasts and storm warnings are usually excellent these days. Warnings need to be taken seriously. And, that is important as tomorrow could be another day of widespread severe weather (see graphic below):
The hatched area is where major tornadoes may occur. Please take the forecasts and warnings seriously as they are issued tomorrow and throughout this storm season.
The full extent of the damage and injuries with the Iowa tornadoes is unknown at this time and likely till not be known until mid- to late Sunday morning. There is a map of the tornadoes' path in the posting below.
The tornado watch was out well in advance of the storms (scroll down). We define "significant" tornadoes as those of F-2 intensity or greater. There is a tool that helps us forecast where strong tornadoes may occur and it signaled that northwest Iowa was at risk (we look for values of more than 1, these were 6+). Storm chasers used this information to get into position to report on the storms and, when damage occurred, to help find and rescue the injured.
Why am I writing this? Because if you go to the WattsUpWithThat blog and read Why Are Weather Forecasts So Bad? and the comments from earlier today, you'll learn that many people have the mistaken impression that meteorologists 'never get it right.' While that is often true with monthly and seasonal forecasting, our short term forecasts and storm warnings are usually excellent these days. Warnings need to be taken seriously. And, that is important as tomorrow could be another day of widespread severe weather (see graphic below):
The hatched area is where major tornadoes may occur. Please take the forecasts and warnings seriously as they are issued tomorrow and throughout this storm season.
Good stuff! People do not take forecast seriously because they think meteorologists are always wrong.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Ben!
ReplyDelete