Joe Bastardi's Forecast for the Rest of the Winter
The East Coast Severe Weather Threat is Over
Midnight: The East Coast Threat for Tornadoes and Severe Thunderstorms Has Ended 3:50pm. Tornado watch for the Middle Atlantic Region. 2:30pm Tornadoes are also forecast in the South. 2:20pm. A couple of tornadoes, hail and wind gusts to 65 mph are possible with these storms. This includes NYC and Philadelphia. 1:05pm. The tornado risk has been extended northward into New York. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Remember: if a tornado warning is issued, go to your basement and get under heavy furniture like a pool table. Of, if your basement is finished, get into the bathroom. Go ahead an put a couple of water bottles and, if appropriate, diapers in your shelter area. Wear shoes. If you don't have a basement or safe room, go to the lowest floor and get into a bath or closet in the middle of your home. Children should be put in the bathtub. I'll update later today.
Mike,
ReplyDeleteI've been debating responding to this post ever since I saw it early yesterday morning. My original intention was to make a blog post and direct my response there. I may still do that...
However, why should I give any credence to Mr. Bastardi's winter weather forecast when his original forecast was incorrect? (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/40340/accuweathercom-winter-forecast-1.asp)
The south has been very cold, snow fall across a large portion of the south is well above normal, with prospects for more snow in the coming days (and probably weeks) as we are locked into a strongly negative AO and positive PNA (as is reflected in the latest forecast graphics from Mr. Bastardi).
You rail about climate scientists making long range forecasts and tout the fact that we struggle with the short-term. (Several recent posts illustrate that fact, especially the post sparking our previous discussion and one from earlier today (22 January). So why now are you advocating someone's seasonal forecast? Especially when his original forecast was incorrect.
Patrick,
ReplyDeleteThis is a fair comment and I welcome it. I'll answer in two parts..
BASTARDI. I have seen some rather amazing forecasts from Joe verify, even some that were completely different than the NWS's. You are correct that his initial 2010-11 winter forecast was way off. While I believe Joe is a better than average long range forecaster, I do not believe that he has a great deal of "skill" as defined in meteorology.
CLIMATE FORECASTS. I have not seen Joe attempt to make forecasts more than six months out. As mentioned above, there isn't a great deal of skill there. Logically, if we cannot make consistent forecasts at six months, there is no reason to believe we can do so at 60 years.
But, go back to the 2004 IPCC report. They issued a forecast out to 2100 with 95% error bars. Much of the time since that report was issued, temperatures are outside the confidence interval on the low side.
But, if we look at the high-profile climate forecasts (west side of Manhattan under water by 2000, no more snow for UK, etc., etc.), they have been spectacular failures.
To me, this is sufficient to nullify the hypothesis that we can forecast the climate decades in advance.
Mike