National Weather Service servers still having problems, so I'm doing this additional update. Midwest Ice Storm Radar at 9:20pm CST, click to enlarge this or any graphic West Lafayette, IN has 1.5" of new snow, blue colors on the radar = snow. A mix of freezing rain and sleet are falling in the purple areas including Indianapolis, Dayton, and Columbus. The icing will increase during the night.  Serious power failures are quite likely in these areas. ADDITION 10:15pm, Power is out in the Terre Haute, IN area. Oklahoma Ice  Radar at 9:33pm This is a large area of moderate to heavy rain with a few flashes of lightning. Current temperature in Oklahoma City is 25°, so this will cause icing before it changes over to snow. Very heavy snow is quite possible in Oklahoma and into Missouri more or less along I-44. Travel conditions will be nearly impossible in the blizzard area. ADDITION: Tulsa NWS just issued a forecast that power failures may occur from Muskogee through NW A...

Here is an ice storm map generated by Jesse Ferrell at AccuWeather click to enlarge map The small numbers are the amounts of freezing rain in inches and tenths. St. Louis is right on the 1" line and Indianapolis is predicted to have nearly 1.1 inches. Combined with wind, this would lead to multi-day power outages. The National Weather Service advisories and warnings are unchanged from the last update. A lot  has changed on the radar in two hours. Here is the 8pm radar from AccuWeather: Thunderstorms have developed from Abilene, TX into southwest Oklahoma. These will spread north northeast during the night and change to into snow-producers after midnight. The snow has increased in the Texas Panhandle.  Snow is just developing in southern Kansas (it is snowing in Wichita) and northwest Oklahoma. The bottom line: The forecasts you read below are still valid.

The initial storm shown on AccuWeather radar at 5:55pm. Blue = snow, darker is heavier snow. Purple is freezing rain, darker is heavier. There are confirmed reports of 0.10 to 0.15" accumulations of glaze ice in eastern Missouri into much of central Illinois. Indianapolis now reporting icy streets. Travel conditions in these areas are deteriorating rapidly with darkness and falling temperatures.  Ground stop in place for the Minneapolis airport, numerous flights delayed. This is the main part of the storm getting better organized. Thunderstorms are developing west of Ft. Worth.

Kim and I would like to thank you for being part of both the biggest and the biggest month in the history of Meteorological Musings. While you are here, please take a minute to check the archives (at right). Learn about the book . Take a look at some beautiful weather photography . And, see if there is an appearance in your area . Thanks again for visiting!

The winter storm warnings are now in effect for Dallas-Ft. Worth all the way through Pittsburgh and Philadelphia through Albany and Boston. Airlines are canceling flights by the score. If you had plans to travel, please check the Airline Crisis Survival Guide . Here is the map of winter weather warnings. Map updated 4:35pm. Orange = blizzard warning. Pink = winter storm warning.  Here is AccuWeather's snow forecast map. The red areas are areas where ice is forecast to accumulate. Note: Some snow will fall on top of the ice in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area. Serious icing is expected in the St. Louis and Indianapolis metropolitan areas which will likely extend east across Ohio and into Pennsylvania. From around Detroit to Kansas City to Wichita, strong winds will cause major drifting and whiteout driving conditions. Here is an AccuWeather map of forecast peak winds: Highest winds in Missouri and Illinois will be more than 40 mph causing serious power problems in the ice st...

The National Weather Service's Central Region is apparently having computer problems There have been times when their web sites have been completely inaccessible, perhaps due to heavy traffic. AccuWeather is up and running fine. I'll do an extra update this evening so make sure you have the information you need.

Here is the AccuWeather Radar from 3:05pm Central time: Blue shades = snow, darker shades are heavier snow. Purples and maroons are freezing rain and sleet. Minneapolis has one hour flight delays.  The ice storm has begun from the Lake of the Ozarks through St. Louis and into east central Illinois. The NWS in Indianapolis is warning of a "catastrophic" ice storm.  I expect flight delays to begin at the Chicago airports in a few hours as the snow moves in from the southwest. Meanwhile, to the southwest, the main winter storm has just begun to get underway: Winter storm warnings are now in effect in a continuous band from New Mexico to Vermont. I'll have a full update in about an hour.

Upper half of a winter storm BINGO card The St. Louis Post-Dispatch  has a great game for a winter storm. By clicking here , their web site will generate a "BINGO" card with various winter phrases and cliches used by TV meteorologists. And, you don't have to be in St. Louis to play. It will work equally well in any TV market.

The March 2011 Trains  has an article about the TSA by Don Phillips, America's number one transportation reporter. It is on page 8 and it is well worth reading regardless of what mode(s) of travel you prefer.

The huge winter storm is still just about as forecast yesterday. As you view the forecast, please focus on the general pattern and not the small "squiggles" in lines and amounts. Let's begin with the ice storm. The first map is storm total ice accumulation: Darker shades of purple = heavier accumulations of glaze ice. We already have roads that are slick in spots in eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri due to freezing drizzle. The significant freezing rain will be tonight in Missouri, Oklahoma and Arkansas then spread east. The snowfall map is below. Blizzard conditions are likely in many areas. The heavy snow will begin in Oklahoma tomorrow and then spread east northeastward. The predicted areas of heaviest snows shifted just a bit from last night. I am very concerned about traffic on Interstate 44 tomorrow as the snow will fall very quickly and may be on top of glaze ice. This could be a real mess as will Interstate 70 later and then the central and northern I...

Google's tool for tracking the nation of origin of our blog's readers show that people from Egypt are reading right now (along with India, England, Germany, Finland, France, Australia, and Canada). To our Egyptian readers, please know that the many friends of your great nation wish you all the best in this difficult time.

Article about Student Career Experience Program in the December, 2010, "Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society" The American Meteorological Society has publicized a wonderful program for students interested in the atmospheric sciences as a career. It is called the Student Career Experience Program and is sponsored by the federal government. More info is here . If you know a student with an interest in meteorology in general, or the National Weather Service in particular, please check this program out.

This is what it actually looks like (the car in front of me has its lights on) to drive in a whiteout. Don't do it! Whiteout conditions are possible in many areas with this storm. Things look pretty much on track tonight. Here is a forecast of snow depths from now through Thursday morning. It is important that you not focus on every squiggle and realize that amounts could easily be an inch or two on either side of the depicted values. I still expect blizzard warnings (farther east, watches) to be issued for much of the dark blue-pink-red-gray colored areas with winds gusting above 40 mph and some gusts above 50 mph causing severe blowing and drifting. Remember, the major snow starts in the southern Plains late Monday night and Tuesday and will spread east from there. With regard to ice, here is the latest. Again, do not focus on exact details, please focus on the overall pattern. Darker colors = more glaze ice accumulation. I believe this will be a major ice storm, esp...

As the winter storm slowly gathers force you might wonder what meteorologists are doing right now. Many of us are eating dinner because the last "forecast cycle" is complete. The rest were launching weather balloons about an hour ago and are finishing tracking those flights as I write this. That data above the surface is vital to getting the forecast right. In about 15 minutes, the National Weather Service weather balloon locations, as well as locations throughout the world (the balloons are launched simultaneously) will be reporting the results of the temperatures, humidities, and winds aloft.  Those will be ingested by computers in Washington, D.C., Montreal, outside London, and other weather centers all over the world.  Starting around 9pm Central, the first of the computer model forecasts for the next cycle will come out, with additional model forecasts from then until midnight. If you want to know more about how all this works, I suggested reading Warnings: The Tru...

The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City calls the storm, "LIFE-THREATENING" The National Weather Service in Chicago says, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH SNOWFALL RATES WILL PRODUCE LIFE-  THREATENING SITUATIONS WITH WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. Notice a common theme? That theme applies to everywhere in-between that will be affected by this storm. Below is a map of current winter weather advisories as of 4:06  5:36pm CST Sunday. The winter weather warnings are for snow except for the areas where freezing rain (glaze ice) is indicated (see below).  I expect a number of these to be upgraded to blizzard warnings tomorrow for the storm which will begin late Monday night and Tuesday in the Plains then spread east.   Light green, blizzard watch; pink, winter storm warning; purple, winter weather advisory (less serious than a watch or warning); hunter green = winter storm watch. Here is AccuWeather's  48-hour ice storm forecast: The dar...

Here is a map of the probability of 2" or more  from now until 6am CST Monday: Two low pressure systems will combine to produce ice storm, heavy snow, and blizzard conditions starting tomorrow and lasting into Thursday in the Northeast.  This one looks like a very big deal! Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are likely  in the heavy snow region causing blizzard conditions. Four inches or more of snow = "heavy snow' Map from: accuweather.com With regard to the ice storm, wind gusts of 40 mph will cause power and tree problems. Preliminarily, the heaviest ice may fall in a 50-mile or so band centered around Coffeyville, KS to St. Louis to Indianapolis. Some of those areas may have heavy snow on top of the ice. I expect to post more information on this storm late this afternoon or this evening. The low pressure system in the upper atmosphere is now inland and will be better sampled so the forecasts can be more specific. A suggestion: If you are in the ice storm area...

BUMPED TO TOP: There are so many questions about the pending winter storm in the  central and eastern United States, including "forecaster X says  one thing and forecaster Y says another" that I thought I would bump  this posting to the top. I have received a TON of emails and Facebook comments/complaints today pertaining to the great disparity of forecasts for the developing storm in the East. Apparently, there are cities where the current TV forecasts vary from “rain only” to “12 inches of snow.” I’d like to take a moment to explain why this is sometimes the case. There are four techniques commonly used to forecast the weather: Computer models Scientifically valid derivative techniques Experience Instinct The computer models can have wide disparities. Take a look at these three models all current and valid at the same time: 5km model. For D.C., 8 - 11 inches. Parts of Delaware, 15-19 inches.  ARW WRF model. D.C. 8 - 10 inches....

The standard kilogram Meteorology is the science of weather and the atmosphere. Metrology is the science of measurement. Sound boring? This fascinating (and easy to read) article from The Wall Street Journal will likely change your mind. Note: subscription may be required.

I'm getting LOTS of messages tonight about the forecasts for a big storm. I advise people not to pay too much attention to winter storm forecasts until about 48 hours before the storm is expected to start in your location.  The big snows are still more than 48 hours away from the central U.S. so I haven't made a forecast. I just re-posted this image and circled the location of the low pressure system for non-meteorologists reading the blog. If you are wondering why we can't pin it down yet, it is because the storm is still not over land. The center of the storm is the inner-most "comma-shaped" cloud band off the coast of Northern California. It seems that until the storm can be sampled by the land-based weather balloon network, the forecasts tend to be very inconsistent.

Mother Nature is certainly making Kansas' 150th anniversary memorable! Unfortunately, in January, temperatures that go up in Kansas must come down. See posting below.

More about the terrible state of science (and engineering) among America's children: Only one or two students out of every 100 displayed the level of mastery that the federal panel governing the tests defines as advanced, the government said. “I was rather dismayed at the relatively lackluster performance at the top of the achievement levels,” said Alan Friedman, a former chief executive of the New York Hall of Science who sits on the board that oversees the federal tests. Details here . So, how did I get interested in science and make it my life's work? The first part was fate. The day after the Ruskin Heights tornado my mom drove me through the damage and I was fascinated by what nature brought. View of debris from Ruskin Heights tornado. Circled is 109th street. This is the exact view I had as we drove down 109th. Recently released photo from "Life" magazine archives. But, that interest was sustained because kids in the late 50's and 60's could ...

At this time yesterday, temperatures in Wichita and the surrounding area were approaching 70°. That is coming to an end as Arctic air mass will overspread the region. And, snow is going to overspread the region.  Stay tuned!

Today is the 150 th anniversary of Kansas’ statehood. I am not a native Kansan and, until I moved here,  I assumed that Kansas was “boring.” The “Wizard of Oz” has done a great deal to harm Kansas’ image and I bought into it. I could not have been more wrong. Kansas: The "Sunflower State" The best part of Kansas is its people. Straightfoward, modest (often to a fault), unwaiveringly friendly, patriotic, and independent. Want an example? Just yesterday, Kathleen was reading the Wichita Eagle’s obituaries and this was published without any fanfare whatsoever: Canzoneri, Helen Mary (Zimmerman), 97, died on November 18, 2010 at Larksfield Place. She was raised in Sterling and graduated from high school there. She earned her B.A. Phi Beta Kappa from Stanford University and an M.A. in Japanese history from Harvard University . She met her husband, Vincent, while working on her doctorate in Japan. The couple returned to marry in Sterling in 1936, then lived in Tokyo until S...

From University of Alabama I've posted below about the outbreak of silliness pertaining to the claim that the East Coast snow storms this winter were caused by global warming/climate change/global swings, etc., etc. Here is one additional data point that further undermines their case: World temperatures this week are below normal.  The above graph shows world temperatures (red line) as measured by satellite with the current value highlighted with the red box. The amber-colored line is the average temperature from 1979-2010. How can it be 'global warming' when temperatures are below normal? Hat tip: Watts Up With That

This is the 1,500th post since the Meteorological Musings blog began in November, 2009. And, this week has had the most readers history of the blog and January, 2011, will be, by far, the biggest month in the history of the blog. Kim and I thank you!!! While you are visiting, please take a look at the archives (listed at right) for anything that might be of interest. Please also feel free to visit the Mike Smith Enterprises Web Site , become a blog follower, look for upcoming appearances and book signings, and anything else that might be of interest.

while, at the same time... UPDATE: 2:53pm CST: Since posting the above, Wichita's temperature has risen to 71° . UPDATE:  Final high temperature was a record 72°!

The Kansas State Capitol: Where we just spent $200 million to fix the leaking roof and the roof still leaks. Photo: Destination 360 The deficit? The war in Afghanistan? The poor showing in science among America's school children? These are the vital issues our elected representatives are fighting over, right? Nope. This is what the Kansas legislature is fighting over: On Monday, state Reps. Tom Sloan, R-Lawrence, and Don Hineman, R-Dighton, introduced a bill to declare the fossil of the Xiphactinus audax the official fossil of the state of Kansas. The bill's genesis came from Sloan's constituents. On Wednesday, Sloan said, he started hearing views that the more fitting state fossil was the pteranodon. Hineman's heard those arguments, too, and he indicated Thursday there could be a change. Lest you think this issue might fade away, We're kind of in limbo right now. We may change the species of the fossil before we finish with that bill," said H...

We don't often think of scientists and engineers risking their lives for discovery and the advance of science. As a friend reminded me, today is the anniversary of two tragedies and another sad commemoration is Tuesday. The first is the anniversary of the Apollo 1 fire, 43 years ago today. The Apollo 1 crew. From left, Gus Grissom, Ed White, and Roger Chafee A routine test was going poorly. Suddenly, a fire broke out. The cause has never been determined. Because of the poor design of the Apollo capsule, the crew never had a chance. Today is also the 25th anniversary of the Challenger disaster.  The plume of flame out of the right side of the light-colored solid fuel rocket came from a non-sealed joint. The fire grew and the Shuttle assembly disintegrated. By this time it was thought shuttle missions were "routine" and the regular TV networks no longer carried them. We were watching CNN's coverage in WeatherData's office and, when we saw the explosion, w...

One of the most iconic episodes of Seinfeld  was "The Soup Nazi." You might recall that Elaine's knees buckled, the soup was so good. In the late 1990's and early 2000's Wichita had its own soup restaurant, Tanya's Soup Kitchen. Run by entrepreneur Tanya Tandoc, I had never been a patron until a friend urged me to try it. Turns out Tanya's soups were knee-buckling good! In 2004, Tanya lost her lease and the restaurant closed. Photo of Tanya (front) and her team. Courtesy: The Wichita Eagle Now, she is coming back at Phil Ruffin's Sunburst Plaza at 1725. Her new restaurant is expected to open this spring. The entire story is here . I'll post when she reopens. And, the next time you are in town, you will want to stop by.

The Al Gore Effect is still at work: Inclement weather has canceled a community workshop focusing on the local climate action planning process and energy conservation and sustainability. “Carbon, Our Energy Future and You,” a joint conference planned by the University of Virginia, Charlottesville and Albemarle County, will be rescheduled for another date, as yet to be announced, officials said. The workshop, originally scheduled for 6 p.m., is being postponed in the face of a predicted winter storm that could drop between 4 and 8 inches on Central Virginia, with the heaviest snowfall between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. Full story here . 

The current temperature in Wichita via my car's thermometer. It will be at least as warm tomorrow. Come visit us!