The Real State of Climate Science
All you need to know about why "climate science" is so far from being able to make reliable forecasts of future climate:
...the Apollo Program, the greatest technological accomplishment of the 20th century, could be achieved by NASA with a total computing capacity inferior to a modern cell phone’s – simply because all the scientific and technological requisites for that great enterprise were based on known physical and chemical laws and properties. In contrast, all the world’s computers now existing linked together could not provide a precise simulation of the climate dynamics – because the programmers would lack the proper knowledge of its functioning as a system and of all the interacting factors that influence it.
The entire essay is here.
You'll notice the climate model forecasts are always for 10 years or more in the future. Why? Because they utterly fail when used to forecast the climate (average temperature and rainfall) for the next few seasons (i.e., a forecast for summer 2011 made now). So, those forecasts aren't even released to the public. Yet, government reports publish forecasts for 60+ years into the future.
Keep this in mind when you read that the loss of arctic ice is "permanent" and other similar dire forecasts.
Hat Tip: Watts Up With That
...the Apollo Program, the greatest technological accomplishment of the 20th century, could be achieved by NASA with a total computing capacity inferior to a modern cell phone’s – simply because all the scientific and technological requisites for that great enterprise were based on known physical and chemical laws and properties. In contrast, all the world’s computers now existing linked together could not provide a precise simulation of the climate dynamics – because the programmers would lack the proper knowledge of its functioning as a system and of all the interacting factors that influence it.
The entire essay is here.
You'll notice the climate model forecasts are always for 10 years or more in the future. Why? Because they utterly fail when used to forecast the climate (average temperature and rainfall) for the next few seasons (i.e., a forecast for summer 2011 made now). So, those forecasts aren't even released to the public. Yet, government reports publish forecasts for 60+ years into the future.
Keep this in mind when you read that the loss of arctic ice is "permanent" and other similar dire forecasts.
Hat Tip: Watts Up With That
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