Cancun, Mexico. Site of this year's "global warming" conference. This year’s global warming in Cancun (notice the UN bureaucrats always meet in upscale areas like Bali, Davos, Cancun, and Coppenhagen rather than in places like Calcutta or Port Au Prince where they desperately need the money) has been so rife with silliness it has become a parody of itself. There are many, many things I could write about it, but, instead, I recommend reading Elizabeth Scalia’s posting, Eschewing teleconferences that could reduce their carbon footprints to almost nothing (assuming they all own computers and work in offices appropriately outfitted with vision-wrecking fluorescent overheads), the usual bureaucratic suspects have gathered in Cancun, Mexico, for another round of United Nations’ “talks on climate change”—that malleable and useful crisis upon which every weather variant and geological shift may be blamed without proof, for as long as the scam can dependably line the right p...

According to The Wall Street Journal... A long-awaited report from the Institute of Medicine to be released Tuesday triples the recommended amount of vitamin D most Americans should take every day to 600 international units from 200 IUs set in 1997. Entire story here . (subscription may be required) Of course, you heard the Vitamin D story here first.

I'll be speaking after lunch Thursday to the Contingency Planning Association of the Carolinas in Charlotte. Looking forward to it!

Courtesy: CNN Yazoo City, Mississippi. For the second time in seven months, a major tornado struck the city. The April tornado killed ten. Yesterday evening's tornado injured six. UPDATE:  11:20am.  The tornado threat continues today over eastern Mississippi and western Georgia (including Atlanta). Major delays expected for flights to and from Atlanta. Here is the AccuWeather radar at 11:15am.

From Loves Park, Illinois, here is video of the tornado along falling debris and powerline flashes. The image below shows a powerline flash as well as a piece of debris flying through the air (above the flash). You'll notice some of the debris is moving rapidly. Sharp metal could do serious injury, which is why I do not  advice standing outside near a tornado and taping it!

Yes, this could happen: In 26,000 years!!! ...send them this article . All of this sudden concern is intended to influence the global warming conference in Cancun this week. And, if you would like a technical explanation of all of this, go here . Finally, here is a graph of the long term trend in sea level rise (Battery Park, NYC) from NOAA: You'll note that there is nothing ominous in the recent measured rise in sea level, it has been more or less the same for 150 years. It would take 26,000 years for sea level to reach the level depicted in The History Channel's photoshopped image at the top of this posting. Calculations and more info at:   Watts Up With That

Greenleaf Book Group, my publisher, has set up a Facebook page pertaining to Warnings  for  the Christmas book buying season. They have also put the first chapter online. It is about the Ruskin Heights tornado and how I first got interested in weather. It is here . Warnings is available at Amazon (click on ad at right) or bookstores. If you wish to purchase an autographed copy, please send $25 (we pay the sales tax) to: Mike Smith Enterprises, LLC 4031 N. Tara Circle Wichita, KS 67226 We are waiving the shipping fee from now until Christmas!   Be sure to let us know how you would like the autograph to read.

UPDATE: 1:37pm.  Tornado watch (yellow) and tornado warnings (red) are out along with a flash flood watch (green). Updated warnings available at AccuWeather . Here is the NWS Storm Prediction Center's outlook for tornadoes today. There is a threat in the entire outlined area with strong tornadoes possible in the hatched region.

Image of boy drinking polluted water from PlanetArk If you read one article on environmentalism from now through the rest of the year, read this one . An excerpt... Mercifully, nobody will pay attention to the climate conference at Cancun next week,  where a much-reduced group of delegates will go through the motions. The delusional dream of global action to combat climate change is dead. Barack Obama’s cap-and-trade scheme is dead. Chicago’s carbon-trading market is dead. The European Union’s supposed reduction in carbon emissions has been exposed as a giant fraud. (The EU is actually responsible for 40 per cent more CO2 today than it was in 1990, if you count the goods and services it consumed as opposed to the ones that it produced.)  Public interest in climate change has plunged, and the media have radically reduced their climate coverage. The biggest loser is the environmental movement. For years, its activists neglected almost everything but climate change. They be...

In the summer of 1980, Kathleen and I sat at the Westport Theatre in St. Louis and watched Airplane!  Up until then Leslie Neilsen had been a straight man character actor. While it received mediocre reviews, I thought it was the second funniest movie I had ever seen (#1 is Blazing Saddles ). His deadpan Dr. Rumack created a whole new type of movie character. For the next 30 years, I would bug Kathleen whenever she would begin a sentence with, "Surely...." by delivering a variation of Nielsen's famous line. How very sad that this funny, funny man is gone. He passed away from complications related to pneumonia. Thanks for all the laughs.

The hatched area is where the National Weather Service is predicting a chance of major tornadoes tomorrow. AccuWeather charts the forecast progression of the weather system:

Hope I am not doing to many "non weather" stories lately, but this story -- how we have crippled Iran's nuclear program without firing a shot -- is fascinating. UPDATE: Monday afternoon.  The plot thickens .

Just a few weeks ago, articles were being written about the drought in the Midwest. Between last week's rain and the heavy rains forecast this week, that problem should be largely alleviated.

We've tweaked the Mike Smith Enterprises, LCC website. Click here to take a look.

Here is a map of National Weather Service winter weather watches and advisories: Hope you had a great Thanksgiving and have a smooth trip returning home.

If you have some time this holiday weekend, please check out the Warnings page on Facebook.

As the holiday weekend winds down, I thought new readers (and, apparently, we have several hundred new readers the past week) might like to go back and read the three most popular postings in the history of the blog.  Here they are: 1. Anatomy of a Microburst . By the way, this posting has been read by people from all over the world, more than thirty nations. 2. Unique Way of Displaying Huge Hail 3. 25th Anniversary of Delta 191

Strategypage is a world events and military strategy web site that is well respected and non-partisan. Read their whole analysis at the link.

From our friends at Vaisala, here is a map of world lightning strikes from March 1 to October 31, 2010 (click to enlarge). Thanks to their new technology lightning can be monitored worldwide for the first time. One thing that jumps out at me is the high number of strikes in the Upper Mississippi Valley. They had a much worse than normal tornado season in the area and the amount of lightning corresponds to it. UPDATE: Saturday morning: A tragic story of lightning killing 7 children and injuring 67 at a South African school.

New York Times'  best-selling author Jenna Blum has put Warnings  on her " Black Friday Best Books " list! She says, Ever wonder whether your plane’s in danger from a microburst while it’s landing?  Or how the National Weather Service scrambles to keep you safe when a tornado’s on its way?  Renowned Kansas meteorologist Mike Smith unravels these weather mysteries while showing how science keeps evolving to tame the most powerful force on earth. And, if you would like to read a fictional book about storm chasing, check out her The Storm Chasers .

If you have never seen WKRP in Cincinnati's "Turkey Drop" episode, you have missed one of the greatest moments in sitcom history. The best version of the key scenes does not have the code to embed it on Meteorological Musings, so click here and enjoy! And, the famous punchline:

C. Northcote Parkinson, in 1958, published "Parkinson's Law," based on his experiences with British Civil Service. His writing explains how a bureaucracy's primary aim is to grow itself. Here are a few details from Wikipedia : [Parkinson] assigns to the term a mathematical equation describing the rate at which  bureaucracies  expand over time. Much of the essay is dedicated to a summary of purportedly scientific observations supporting his law, such as the increase in the number of employees at the  Colonial Office  while  Great Britain 's  overseas empire   declined (indeed, he shows that the Colonial Office had its greatest number of staff at the point when it was folded into the  Foreign Office  because of a lack of colonies to administer). He explains this growth by two forces: (1) "An official wants to multiply subordinates, not rivals" and (2) "Officials make work for each other."    "Gentlemen, we've got to protect our ...

Death rates are much higher in cold weather than in warm. As many parts of the nation shiver this Thanksgiving, a new peer-reviewed study documents that global warming saves  lives, click here . And, while it uses different methodology, it comes to the same conclusion that I present in my global warming speeches and have written about on this very blog . Hat tip:  Watts Up With That

Every year, the Wall Street Journal  publishes this account of the first Thanksgiving . We should always offer thanks for our families and our many blessings. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! Added bonus: Ronald Reagan's 1985 Thanksgiving address.

And, as of the time of this posting, there is a tornado warning  west of Springfield (red). The dark red counties are areas under a flash flood warning. The amber color over Springfield is a severe thunderstorm warning. This will be my last update of the evening. AccuWeather will be updating throughout the night.

UPDATE: 3:25pm. Tornado warning  issued for: The radar indicates a classic hook echo south of Claud, MO with a tornado likely. Note: I am NOT going to post every tornado warning. I'm posting the first of the day to indicate the seriousness of the threat at a time of year when tornadoes are not common. AccuWeather has the latest warnings here . The National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch effective until 10pm for the Four State Region. Those thunderstorms may also cause large hail and damaging winds.

A messy day... The AccuWeather radar at 11am shows light freezing rain and drizzle throughout the Midwest. In most cases the temperature is right around freezing so the ice has not become hard frozen. That said, extra caution is advised.  Note the orange/red areas of heavy rain. The purple-toned areas are freezing rain and winter weather advisories.  The greens are flood watches due to the heavy rain expected north of the Ohio River the next two days. And, the tornado threat will develop this afternoon or evening.  As previously indicated, the I-44 area from Tulsa to Rolla should be closely monitored for watches and warnings later today. AccuWeather has continuous updates.

I agree with the Storm Prediction Center's forecast of potential tornadoes in the area outlined in white. The inner colors are higher probabilities. People along I-44 from Tulsa to Rolla should keep a close eye on the weather today. The graphic above is from AccuWeather which shows the travel hazards north of Interstate 70. Finally, the Atlanta airport has 30 minute average delays due to low clouds and fog. AccuWeather will provide updates throughout the day.

Solar air conditioning for vehicles?   Coming soon ! Hat tip: Blog follower Keith.

UPDATE 6:30pm CST: Average delays at the Salt Lake City airport are 1 hour, 15 minutes.  The colors represent National Weather Service winter weather warnings with orange = blizzard warning.  AccuWeather's Jesse Ferrell has more . This storm needs to be taken seriously if you are traveling by car!

UPDATE FRIDAY: Doctors are agreeing . The TSA gloves are real health hazard. ORIGINAL POSTING: Now that TSA agents are reaching inside underwear  , breaking uroscopy bags, and other things we might prefer not to ponder, you might wonder where else the TSA's gloves have been. This has occurred to readers of Instapundit : SEVERAL READERS ASK THE SAME QUESTION: I’d suggest that anyone thinking of opting for the “pat downs” may want to ask the TSA agent when they last changed their gloves. I would worry about just what little “friends” were being carried on the gloves from previous searches. And reader Benjamin Wang emails: A disgusting thought, but I’ve never seen a TSA screener change gloves. It would be interesting to send in a HAZMAT team to test several sets of gloves and see what’s on them. And publicize the results. Remember: The gloves are for their protection. Not yours. Plus, Dr. Alan Reitz emails on the glove-changing thing: “As a health care provider, I thought of ...

Detailed travel forecast from AccuWeather .

Jet lag makes hamsters dumb so says the headline in Science News  reporting on another crucial science study funded by your tax dollars. By the way,   if you have read Warnings  and that publication sounds familiar, it was the one that doubted Fujita's downburst theory. Actually, I don't think it was the jet lag that induced the stupidity as much as the radiation from having their nude picture taken by the TSA prior to boarding the aircraft.

While I sell my book Warnings , I don't sell weather instruments. Every year, people ask me where they can get quality weather instruments as gifts. Here is one place that has a great selection . You can order by phone or mail -- no getting up at 3am on "black Friday."

UPDATE II: Video of the tornado here . UPDATE: Tuesday morning. Quite a bit of damage resulted from these storms including six injuries when a tornado rolled a school bus near Rockford, IL.  Flights were delayed more than five hours at O'Hare International Airport. Photo by Rockford Register-Star ORIGINAL POSTING:  Tornado watch for the Chicago airports until 6pm Central. There is a ground stop at both O'Hare and Midway at the present time. Radar at 3:55pm shows the thunderstorms to the west of O'Hare and Midwest (location indicated by white dots) with the storms moving east northeast at 60 mph.  There will be additional delays this evening. If you are changing planes in Chicago this evening, check into re-routing. For example, if you are on United going from Oklahoma City to D.C., see if you can re-route through Denver. Additional updates at AccuWeather .

As if there wasn't enough to worry about this Thanksgiving travel season, there are tornado watches out for most of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin along with a small part of northeast Missouri until 6pm. As of 2:30pm, there are thunderstorms approaching O'Hare, Midway and Milwaukee's airports with one tornado warning in effect.  You may want to check your airline's web site before leaving for the airport. As of this moment, the average delay at O'Hare is 1 hour, 7 minutes and the thunderstorms are still well to the west. AccuWeather is providing updates.

I see that Amazon is offering a "collectable" copy of " Warnings " with my signature. Feel free to purchase there, but I will personally autograph a book for you or inscribe one for you to give it as a gift. Send $25 (we pay taxes and handling) to: Mike Smith Enterprises, LLC 4031 N. Tara Circle Wichita, Kansas 67226 Be sure and let me know how you would like the inscription to read. By purchasing it directly from us, you save more than $15.  

You'll get your chuckle of the day here . He also says that 'climate change' is " the new global terror ."

Kathleen and I saw the Radio City Music Hall Christmas Spectacular earlier this evening and it was, well, spectacular!  Highly, highly recommend it for the entire family. Their web site is here .

A few people have responded to my TSA postings with (paraphrasing), “anything to be safe.” I understand the desire to be "safe." What I don't understand is this: From September 12, 2001 to October 31, 2010 (the last day of the old TSA procedures) here is what the statistics looked like: Deaths due to tornadoes in U.S.:  533 Deaths due to being shot while hunting in U.S.: 900 (approximate, but close) Deaths due to terrorism in U.S.: Zero Keeping in mind that the underwear bomber, liquids plot, shoe bomber, and toner cartridges all originated outside the U.S. The toner cartridges were cargo, of course. Please help me to understand why you believe this ratcheting up of surveillance of passengers on November 1 is justified. Storm chasing continues, and is growing, in spite of the hazard (i.e., there are companies that take paying customers out to watch storms). I don’t know of any serious person who proposes outlawing hunting because of the hazards. We do not ins...

Astronauts are Tweeting photos from space. Details here (hat tip: The Telegraph ). Here are a couple: The photo below shows fog over England (the blurry appearance, upper left), the aurora borealis (green on the earth's edge, far upper left) and mainland Europe (right). London and Paris are the brightest "clumps" of light.

This weekend is also the one year anniversary of "Climategate" where a hacker or whistle-blower (we don't know which) released emails and other data from prominent climate researchers. The emails revealed illegality (deleting emails to avoid Freedom of Information Act requests), attempts to deceive ("hiding the decline" [of temperatures]), and duplicity (i.e., saying in public that global warming is "incontrovertible" while, in private, asking "where is the warming?"). While global warming is one of my least favorite subjects, I write about it because it is important and so much of what the media publishes on this subject is incorrect. That said, it was a coincidence that the blog was started at the same time as Climategate, but it certainly gave me plenty to write about the first few days! If you would like to read the posting that alerted me to the emails release, go here .

Today is the first anniversary of “Meteorological Musings.” Kim and I certainly hope that you have enjoyed the first 1,161 posts.   We’ve certainly enjoyed conversing with our readers and meeting so many of you during the book tour.   We always welcome comments and suggestions for postings. We have a special posting, When Meteorologists Saved the World , just below that we think you will enjoy. Mike and Kim

Irving P. Krick In Warnings, I write about the thousands of lives and millions of dollars routinely saved by meteorologists. We have come to count on the expertise of weather science for planning trips and taking shelter. But, how about when the entire fate of the free world was in balance? The following, in part, is excerpted from WWII History, March, 2010 by Gene Pfeffer. There are many books and movies written about the Allied invasion of Europe that turned the tide against the Nazis in World War II. Some, like The Longest Day, allude to the weather forecast playing a role in Eisenhower’s decision when to begin the invasion. And, when I visited the Eisenhower Library in Abilene, Kansas, a number of years ago there was a display case with various meteorological documents relating to the invasion. Mr. Pfeffer’s account, to my knowledge, is the first time the back story of this momenteous weather forecast was made. Organizing the 500 warships and 3,000 landing craft and gett...