People keep asking me about the weather for Election Day. Here is the National Weather Service's forecast of the amount of rain between 7am and 7pm Tuesday (Central time).

I am often asked about tornadoes in other parts of the world. Here is a map of where tornadoes occur throughout the world. It was compiled by the National Climatic Data Center (part of NOAA) in 1995. Click to enlarge.

H = hurricane.  M = major hurricane. This is the forecast from NOAA's National Hurricane Center of category 2 Tomas. We continue to be concerned about the potential for the storm to affect Haiti where thousands are still living in tents and other makeshift shelters.

It is pretty amusing. Click here .

Apparently, it is true. They are going to replace much of their weather coverage with long-form and reality programing. Details here .

Since Google started counting in June, we crossed the 25,000 views milestone about 1pm Central time. Thought you might like to see which postings have been most popular since June 1. It is interesting to me that none of the above are about global warming. I have grown weary of the subject, too. However, I continue to cover it because its importance to U.S. politics and the economy. The blog's first anniversary is next month. We'll have a few more thoughts at that time. Thanks again to our thousands of readers! -- Mike and Kim

Phonetically the same as the song that launched the career of Frankie Valli and the Four Seasons, Tropical Storm Shary has developed in the Atlantic  Atlanta . AccuWeather is tracking. While Shary is "twisting," she will not "come on" to the United States.

My friend and colleague Jessie Ferrell has this very interesting post about the large number of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms during October, most of which occurred late in the month.

Gee, its been, what, a week since I posted about silliness in the New York Times.  Here is the latest and it pertains to -- what else? -- global warming: “Just as few people saw a moral problem with slavery in the 18th century, few people in the 21st century see a moral problem with the burning of fossil fuels,” Professor Hoffman said. “Will people in 100 years look at us with the same incomprehension we feel toward 18th-century defenders of slavery? This statement is so wrong on so many levels. First of all, any American history book will tell you the founders were highly  conflicted about slavery and that conflict led to the horrible 3/5th's Compromise. From what I have read, a majority  of Americans in 1783 were against slavery but the founders felt it was important for the South to be part of the Union. While this was a poor decision that would result, 70 years later, in the Civil War, it is hardly correct to say "few" people had a moral problem with slavery....

If the embedding doesn't work, click here . Click on 1080 to view in HD. Just this morning, an acquaintance described tornado warnings in his neighborhood as a "garden party" -- everyone goes outdoors to watch the storm. This amazing HD video (select 1080 resolution) by Jason McLaughlin, taken in Rice, TX Monday, demonstrates why standing outside watching is a dangerous idea. You can see the debris flying at speeds of 100+ mph and, if a sharp piece of metal struck you, you could be torn in half. You can see the power lines arcing. Touch a live wire and you could be electrocuted. I can't account for the two autos that drive into the tornado. I have no idea what the drivers were thinking. After watching the video in HD, twice, it appears one car is saved by the Jersey Barrier dividing the freeway. Had the barrier not kept the car in place, it likely would have tumbled or become airborne causing serious injury. I suggest watching the entire video to see the ...

No, not who is going to win or lose but where it is going to rain.  The map below is for the calendar day (central time) of the election and forecasts the amount of rain (scale at left, click to enlarge). The forecast is from the National Weather Service's GFS model. It is said that rain favors Republicans . I have no idea whether that is true. If it is true, then the race that might be most affected is Patty Murray's Senate seat in Washington where heavy rain is forecast.

I have previous written that this November would be a good time to read Tom Wolfe's The Right Stuff.  With sales of more than 5,000,000 copies, the book tells the story of "how the future began" -- the breaking of the sound barrier and the early astronauts. The first reason is that Wichita State University's Ulrich Museum will be hosting "Buz" Carpenter on November 4. Carpenter was a pilot of the SR-71 jet that flew -- literally -- faster than a speeding bullet .  Airplanes like the X-1 and SR-71 were marvels of American ingenuity. The public is invited. The second reason for reading TRS in November will be posted on the 14th. Stay tuned.

Excerpted from an interview with President Obama by The National Journal. Emphasis mine. NJ  You mentioned energy as an area. On the other hand, of the 20 serious Republican Senate candidates who have taken a position, 19 have said that the science of climate change is either wrong, inconclusive, or flat-out fraudulent. I’m wondering, given that, how you react to that, and also if you would be comfortable having the issue of carbon emissions ultimately dealt with by EPA, an approach that I think you’ve always viewed as second and not the preferable one. But given where Republicans are on the science of climate change, can you see any prospects for action on that, and are you comfortable with EPA being the ultimate arbiter of how we deal with it? OBAMA  I think some of the rhetoric you’re hearing on the campaign trail has to do with politics. Again, there’s a bracing reality that hits you when suddenly you’ve got responsibilities on the governance side. I do think that gi...

A provocative article here . And, as I have previously discussed , these are nothing compared to the shortages that will occur if the world's temperatures cool significantly.

Warnings is now heading to other countries! Some copies have been sent to China and to Norway. They will soon be reading a great book! If you haven't read it yet, click on the Amazon link on the right and pick up your copy today.

UPDATE:  Red shading = tornado warnings in effect at 10:36am Central. Yellow = tornado watches. Click to enlarge. A major storm is moving across the Midwest at the present time. The Storm Prediction Center has maxed out  the probability of damaging thunderstorm winds in the Midwest. The hatched area may have winds in excess of 75 mph. The position of the line of thunderstorms at 7:20am Central time. Twenty thousand homes and businesses are without power in the St. Louis area. High winds are likely throughout the Upper Midwest and northern Plains. And, the orange in North Dakota is a blizzard warning!   (click to enlarge any of these maps) AccuWeather continues to track all of this. Check there for updates.

NOAA has announced its new computer facility which will be used to improve weather and climate models. Meteorologists use the computer models as "guidance" in formulating the final forecasts that are seen in the media and provided by commercial weather companies. This new facility will continue the gradual improvement in day-to-day forecasts we have seen the last 15 years. One caution, dramatically better forecasts will not occur overnight. It is more of a "brick by brick" process.

Dr. Judith Curry is a "rock star" in the field of climate science. Her qualifications are here . She has written an essay pertaining to her journey from global warming "true believer" to qualified skeptic. I highly recommend her essay.

UPDATE: 10:10PM Monday: Tornado watch in effect for the area outlined in red until 6am. UPDATE 8:40pm Monday: Thunderstorms are starting to develop in Kansas near Salina. These storms will continue to intensify the next few hours. The NWS's Storm Prediction Center has increased the severe weather probabilities between 10pm and sunrise over Missouri, Illinois and adjacent areas. See map below (click to enlarge). The western threat area is from around Des Moines to KC to Ft. Scott. In the hatched area, wind gusts could be 70 mph late tonight. These storms will have rapid forward motion. If you have a weather radio, tonight would be a good night to use it. ORIGINAL POST PERTAINING TO TUESDAY (after sunrise): In addition to the threat of high non-thunderstorm winds from the Great Lakes to the Northern Plains (see post below), there is an increase risk of damaging thunderstorm winds tomorrow from the Mississippi River to the Appalachians. There is also a risk of tornadoes, es...

Very  strong winds are likely in the brown-shaded areas and I'm concerned that some of the local forecasts are underforecasting wind speeds with this event along with its duration. There will be gusts above 50 mph in some areas. On the lakes, especially Lake Superior and northern Lake Michigan, gusts above 60 mph are likely and marine storm warnings are in effect. The strong winds will start tonight and persist into at least tomorrow night. The title of this posting refers to the lyrics of Gordon Lightfoot's immortal Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald. The lyrics are here . It tells the story of the 1975 storm that sunk the giant ore carrier. You can listen and follow the lyrics by clicking here . UPDATE:  Per the NWS in Chicago this storm will have lower barometric pressures (and, likely, stronger winds) than the Edmund Fitzgerald storm. Here is the list. Barometric pressure in inches of mercury (the way it is conveyed on TV) is the last column. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEME...

Art Horn is a meteorologist who posts an provocative forecast here . Make sure you have a good winter coat and your car is winterized, if his forecast is correct.

As expected , this week is going to be much more active than the first three weeks of the month. The image below shows a tornado destroying schools in northeast Texas yesterday. Today, tornado (red) and severe thunderstorm (blue) watches are already out in the Southeast and there is a chance of severe thunderstorms from Wisconsin to St. Louis to Little Rock. It is a good time to keep up on the weather. For the latest, just go to AccuWeather .

... you call 9-1-1 from the back of the squad car after being arrested for drunk driving.

Just in time for Halloween .

My friend, Roger Pielke, Jr., has written a fresh and much-need look at the politics and related issues surrounding climate change -- both natural (the climate is always  changing) and man-made. Global warming/climate change is a significant issue for our world but an extraordinarily difficult topic for the average person to understand. Anything that clarifies the issue in a non-technical manner is a most welcome addition to the discussion. The Climate Fix is an outstanding, balanced view of the entire issue of mankind's effects on the atmosphere and its consequences.  Roger is the son of meteorologist and climate expert Roger Pielke, Sr. and has learned a lot of atmospheric science through osmosis. His full-time job is a policy researcher at the University of Colorado. Fix takes us through the history of the global warming hypothesis and the politics surrounding it. He lightly touches on the science but Fix is not a “science book” (i.e., there is nothing technical or ...

I had the pleasure of being the dinner speaker for the National Intercollegiate Flying Association's awards dinner at Kansas State University's Salina campus yesterday. Kathleen and I met many outstanding young people as well as the adults who volunteered their time to judge the skills of these young pilots. By the way, if you ever get invited to an event at KSU with food, accept the invitation. Their meals are always great!

On a number of occasions I have written about airport security. If you would like to read some of my previous postings go here  or here . I've known about Michael Bennett, the ExpressJet pilot who finally had enough of the TSA's overreach, for several days. I haven't written about it until now because I wanted to hear the TSA's side of the story. Now that I have read their statement, here goes... Mr. Bennett's side of the story is the first posting here . Basically, he was going through the checkpoint on his way to his flight (he was piloting). He went through the metal detector and it did not alarm. Regardless, they directed him to go through the porn-o-scope. He refused. Keep in mind that pilots can legally take guns  into the cockpit. So, the porn-o-scope, as it pertains to the flight crew, is pure "theatre." But, the bigger issue, for all of us, is giving up our liberties for little or no gain. The porn-o-scopes (which provide a detailed view un...

For the third time in six days, The New York Times  feels obligated to hit us over the head with how stupid/uniformed/naive/fundamentalist people are in the Central U.S. Today, they take on the good people of Indiana . Of course, Indiana is the home of two great universities, Notre Dame and Purdue. It is also home of the vibrant city of Indianapolis.  Having been to Indiana -- numerous times -- I can attest that virtually all of the people I have met are intelligent and friendly. But, you would never get that impression from the article. I'm not going to take the time to outline all of the things factually wrong with the global warming coverage in this story (see Rubes I and Rubes II and you'll get the idea). I believe the real agenda of this story is given away by the fact it is a story classified under "Politics" (look at the very top). Interestingly, Roger Pielke, Jr., hardly a global warming "denier," has an article about global warming science/po...

...is now available. The entire report is  here .

Strong thunderstorms with large hail and strong winds are likely in the southern Plains starting this afternoon. AccuWeather has more. Above is the preliminary severe thunderstorm outlook for Friday and Friday night. There is the potential for tornadoes in the area outlined in green with even higher probabilities in yellow. And, for your weekend planning, this is the outlook for Saturday for severe thunderstorms. Don't let the Central U.S.'s beautiful weather of the last three weeks mislead: Keep an eye and ear out for watches and warnings if you are in these areas the next few days.

Here .

In July, I wrote: The 236-mile Kansas Turnpike was constructed in 22 months from 1954 to 1956. That is more than ten miles per month. Presumably, we have better tools today. Why in the world does it take (literally) two years replace a single bridge (I-70 near Lawrence) or 18 months to rework ten miles of roadway? Does this strike anyone else as odd? The Los Angeles Times  has a column that makes a similar point: It took 410 days to build the   Empire State Building ; four years to erect the Golden Gate Bridge. The Pentagon took two years; the Alaska Highway just nine months. These days it takes longer to build an overpass . While I have some guesses, I have no idea why construction, once started, takes so long these days. It isn't environmental regulation (once construction has started) as the Times  suggests and, as I said, presumably we have better tools. Does anyone have the answer? If you have expertise in this area, please write your thoughts in th...

Kathleen and I have done most of these .  Have you?

Inexplicably, the New York Times  seems to be determined to offend its readers and potential readers. It is no wonder its stock price is down 71.5% in just the last five years (graph below). Just last Friday, I wrote about a Times  story  describing a global warming quiz and how supposedly uninformed most people were when -- in fact -- the answers given by those surveyed were more accurate than the questions in the poll! Today's offensive article deals with how some Kansans are trying to improve energy efficiency, a goal I certainly support. It also cites the leadership of Nancy Jackson of the Climate & Energy Project for separating the global warming hypothesis from the necessity of conserving energy in an intelligent manner. So, what is the problem? The patronizing tone of the article toward Kansas and Kansans and the cliches regarding our state. I think it is amazing they contend that a state with a Democratic governor, lieutenant governor, Secretary of St...

As long-time readers of the blog know, one of my goals in writing both Warnings  and this blog is to inspire the next generation of scientists. But, it is a huge concern that many of today's young men are not reading well enough to get through school, let alone a science or engineering curricula. So, it was with great interest that I read this column in the Wall Street Journal  about ways of making boys want to read. The money quote: Dr. Robert Weis, a psychology professor at Denison University, confirmed this suspicion in a randomized controlled trial of the effect of video games on academic ability. Boys with video games at home, he found, spend more time playing them than reading, and their academic performance suffers substantially. Hard to believe, isn't it, but Science has spoken. The secret to raising boys who read, I submit, is pretty simple—keep electronic media, especially video games and recreational Internet, under control (that is to say, almost completely a...

Normally, I leave the long range forecasts to my talented colleagues at AccuWeather . However, it looks like October, 2010 -- which has featured nice weather across most of the U.S. (except parts of the Northeast) for a good part of the month -- may go out like a ghoul. There are indications, using some of the long-range forecasting techniques, that the weather pattern across the U.S. will undergo a major change toward stormy conditions around October 27 to 31st. You heard it here first. UPDATE:  TUESDAY, 1:29pm. There is not a single storm warning in effect anywhere in the U.S., including Alaska and Hawaii.  This is about as quiet as it ever gets!

Jenna Blum, one of Oprah's "30 Favorite Women Authors," has just finished reading Warnings and says she "loved reading Warnings" and adds... "Whether you're a weather enthusiast or a reader looking for a gripping true tale, be forewarned: you won't be able to put WARNINGS down. Mike Smith's meticulously researched book shows us the war between man and Nature--and how science is evolving to take on that most powerful and muscular of forces: severe weather. A fascinating must-read." Thanks Jenna! To learn more about Warnings , click on the Amazon link on the right side of this page.

I'm looking forward to presenting The Phantom Crashes  to the National Intercollegiate Flying Association's dinner at Kansas State University - Salina, Friday evening.  See you there!

Turns out it is a story about yet another silly scientific study .  Heck, even Sheldon could have explained this without spending taxpayer money.

A fascinating article from The Wall Street Journal about how companies came together to rescue the miners in Chile.

Friend Jim Reed , one of America's best weather photographers, has this podcast about photographing weather. If you would like to learn more about photographing weather, check it out!

My children used to (and probably still do) call my attempts at humor "dad jokes." I have one I wish to share this morning. Be prepared to groan! As many of you know, I have been in a head and neck brace since mid-summer due to two bones compressing my spinal cord in my neck. I was told -- by two physicians, including a neurosurgeon, -- that I was one stray blow to the neck away from paralysis. So, they rushed me into the head brace that you see in the photo.  I've have to wear it continuously, including when I sleep. I had successful surgery last month to fix the problem. However, I am still in the brace (to support the corrective work done in the surgery) and will be until around Christmas. Because of the urgency of getting my spine protected, I never really looked at the brace in detail until this morning. When I turned it over, I saw the brand (see photo below, look closely). So, from now on, I am going to call it my " Miami Vice." Cue groaning.

Photo of Greensburg Tornado. Copyright 2007, Rick Schmidt. The subtitle of Warnings  is "The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather." An item was posted on Facebook Friday asking, "Science Tamed the Weather?" with a surprised icon. Answer?  Absolutely! For example, without today's tornado warning system, there would be an average of 1,100 fatalities due to tornadoes annually in the U.S.  So far in 2010, there have been 36 fatalities. The total in 2009 was 21. More than 1,000 lives saved each year. We take this accomplishment for granted because we've grown up with TV storm warnings and tornado sirens and, until Warnings,  the amazing story of how the warning system came to be had never been told. And, it is not just tornadoes. Deaths have been markedly reduced in commercial aviation, hurricanes and flash floods.  The story of how this came to be is fascinating (just look at the comments at Amazon ). Check it out!

I dislike writing so much about global warming because I sense readers are as tired of the subject as I am. Nevertheless, I want to bring your attention to a column that will likely be picked up by the mainstream media. You'll remember Climategate which started 11 months ago with the hacking/release (no one knows which except the person[s] who did it) of emails and other communications between various pro-GW scientists. This column talks about one of the least well-known aspects of Climategate, some "comments" regarding the computer code used by the British to compute average global temperatures, When hackers leaked thousands of e-mails from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia in Norwich, UK, last year, global-warming sceptics pored over the documents for signs that researchers had manipulated data. No such evidence emerged, but the e-mails did reveal another problem — one described by a CRU employee named "Harry", who ofte...

Courtesy: NBC. Kathleen and I both loved the "live show" episode of "30 Rock" Thursday evening. There were two versions, one for most of the nation and one for the Pacific time zone. The latter was somewhat different with a different singer, some different jokes, etc. If you would like to watch it, the West video is here . The East video is here . And, if you are not familiar with "30 Rock," here is a brief synopsis:  Liz Lemon (Tina Fey) is the producer and head writer of a live comedy skit show called, "The Girly Show" (TGS) which is similar to "Saturday Night Live" (SNL). Liz is constantly frustrated by her love life, the big egos of the TGS stars, principally Tracy Jordan (Tracy Morgan) and Jenna Maroney (Jane Krakowski), and the demands of NBC in the form of her boss Jack Donaghy (Alec Baldwin). Having spent 25 years in television, the show wittily skewers the silliness of show business. There are several places to watch reg...

The New York Times  does it again, criticizing the good citizens of the U.S. about " flunking climate 101 " when it is the editors who don't seem to know the science. According to the NY Times, the following statements are unequivocally true: As the report’s authors found, 42 percent of those surveyed “incorrectly believe that since scientists can’t predict the weather more than a few days in advance, they can’t possibly predict the climate of the future.” climate models can accurately predict the future How absurd.  The climate models (see a few posts down or click here ), as even climate scientists themselves say  are, at best, primitive. We have no way  of knowing how good the predictions of climate models will be in 50 years. But, since we do know they cannot accurately predict the climate of the next year (even in the aggregate), it is absurd to state as fact that they have skill decades into the future.  The article further goes on, regarding th...

The headline from Wall Street Journal   online : Cotton Climbs to 140-Year High By  ADAM CANCRYN NEW YORK—Cotton prices are at their highest in the 140 years the commodity has traded on an exchange, as heavy Chinese buying and poor harvests are expected to keep global supplies tight. The article goes on to discussweather conditions (Pakistan's devastating floods and heavy rains in China). Recently, wheat, cattle, and a number of other commodities have had major runs. This is partly due to the weak dollar but also due to weather conditions. It is a safe prediction that meteorology will be an increasingly important science in the years to come.  

A report on New England snow from AccuWeather .

Click here . I recently read on a blog about a family that intentionally kept their rotary dial phone in their kitchen to watch their teenaged son's friends try to use it. He reported that most of the time the teenaged guests put their finger in the hole in the plastic dial and pressed. Hat Tip:   Instapundit .

I have absorbed lots of criticism because I no longer support wind power.  Tom Fuller has come to the same conclusion .  We are wasting a lot  of time, money and land on wind power. I fear that, by 2020, the Great Plains will be littered with rusting, broken down wind structures. And, from the comments to Tom's article: “Denmark itself has also already tried being a green-energy innovator; it led the world in embracing wind power. The results are hardly inspiring. Denmark’s wind industry is almost completely dependent on taxpayer subsidies, and Danes pay the highest electricity rates of any industrialised nation. Several studies suggest that claims that one-fifth of Denmark’s electricity demand is met by wind are an exaggeration, in part because much of the power is produced when there is no demand and must be sold to other countries.”

I'm trying something new today:  What suggestions do our readers have for the blog?  Any topics you would like to see covered?  Please post your comments and suggestions.  Thank you!

Speaking of great movies, I happened across the last twenty minutes of October Sky  on television yesterday afternoon. This is a movie that I highly, highly recommend. It is wonderfully cast and acted. Based on the book Rocket Boys  by Homer Hickam, it tells to story of young men in the town of Coalwood, WV and how their love of rocketry changed their lives. As far as I can tell, the movie is not playing on television in the next week. So, go to the local Blockbuster (they can use the money ) and rent it. You won't be sorry -- four stars (out of four). There were two books that I had in mind when I wrote Warnings:   Rocket Boys and The Right Stuff.  Both books tell wonderful science-based people stories.  When Tom Fuller, in his review , compared Warnings  to The Right Stuff  it was one of the great thrills of my life! So, book or movie, a October is great time to watch or read the story of the Rocket Boys.  And, if you have never watched ...