If you read just one article about where 'global warning' science stands, read this one .

In the Comments section after the "Congratulations, AccuWeather" you will find a comment from one of our readers that raises a valid question comparing Snowicane (a term I supported coining) with a term, "Tornado Emergency," that I do not support.  I would like to elaborate on this and I could not do it justice as a brief comment, so I am making it a separate posting. As the tornado headed for the southern part of the Oklahoma City Metro Area on May 3, 1999, the NWS office in Norman issued a message, "Tornado Emergency for South Oklahoma City." In the opinion of the NWS (even though this contention was not  supported by independent published sociological studies after the fact), that message saved lives. It was quickly but informally adopted by NWS offices across the country and the number of "tornado emergencies" increased. I viewed this as a dangerous trend because for one simple reason:   Meteorologists have no skill -- none -- at very sho

The "eye" of the Snowicane over western Long Island My colleagues in State College did an amazing job on the "Snowicane" that struck the Northeast last week. They realized, in advance, how intense and destructive the storm would be.  Normally, a "blizzard" does not knock out power in significant numbers.  This storm, with 90+ mph gusts, caused power to be lost to 1,000,000 electric "customers" (homes and businesses) which is approximately 3,500,000 people. The storm also dumped more than 30" of snow in many areas that the wind whipped into 5+ ft. drifts. AccuWeather's forecasters realized all this as the storm developed. Given that huge numbers of people who would be without power in the cold surrounded by deeply drifted snow, they coined the term Snowicane to differentiate it from an ordinary blizzard. Since it would have a tight circulation similar to a hurricane (note the "eye" in the radar image above) and barometric pre

Another coast-to-coast storm will occur this week.   The storm is currently in the West, will dip down to the Gulf coast and then turn northeast.

As a result of the 8.8 earthquake that struck Chile a tsunami of unknown height is headed for the Hawaiian Islands and will arrive between 3 and 3:45pm Central time. AccuWeather's coverage is here. The Honolulu Advertiser's site is here. I would post links to web cams, etc., but I cannot get to any of them (I'm sure due to overwhelming demand). Kathleen's and my favorite resort, The Grand Hyatt at Poipu on Kauai is in the direct path of the tsunami. It was destroyed by Hurricane Iniki in 1992 and I am hoping it survives this relatively unscathed. Yours truly at what is now ground zero for the tsunami on Kauai.

In addition to our book signing at the KC Plaza B&N (see below), Greenleaf has told me that B&N has made a substantial wholesale purchase of Warnings.  The link to Warnings  on their web site is here.   

We are having a book signing in Kansas City (my home town) at the Barnes & Noble, Country Club Plaza, on Tuesday, May 11, 7pm. I talk about the Ruskin Heights Tornado in the book which is one of the two most important weather events in KC weather history (#1 would be the Great Flood of 1951 that affected my family, as well). I hope to see you in KC or at one of our other signings.  We are keeping a schedule of signings at the home page of Mike Smith Enterprises .

Today is the 100th Day of the Meteorological Musings Blog.  There have been 335 postings, so far. I am simply amazed how fast this blog has grown in just three months. Thank you very much!!  Courtesy of Google, here are the top five posts (drum roll): 5. Getting Children Interested in Science. 4. Coverage of the Plains Ice and Snow Storm in January 3. Elvis's 75th Birthday and how he was nearly killed by a tornado as a baby 2. Wichita Winter Wonderland as hoarfrost flocked the city's trees 1. All New Meaning to Snail Mail.     USPS returns a piece of mail to WeatherData eleven years after it was mailed.

I'm sure you have been reading about how Dave Barry has timed the May 4th release of his new book to coincide with the May 1st release of Warnings  no doubt to piggy back on our publicity to get people into book stores.  Then you learned that Dave is following me to the American Society of Industrial Security Convention! Tonight, Kathleen said, "I wonder how your book is selling compared to Dave's?"  So, I went to Amazon.  Right now Warnings  is # 94,824 and Dave's  I'll Mature When I'm Dead is  198,355. In other words, Warnings  is more than 100,000 places ahead of Dave!  Now, I understand why he is trying to "tag along."  UPDATE, 8:52am Saturday:   Warnings  Amazon.com Sales Rank:  #82,222 in Books (See  Bestsellers in Books ) Dave Barry:   Amazon.com Sales Rank:  #210,746 in Books  Note: I am NOT saying Warnings is 128,524 times better than Dave's book . It does increasingly look like I will be buying him bar-b-que at the Conv

Steve McIntryre has submitted his testimony to the British authorities investigating Climategate. Click on the link and it will take you step-by-step through the scandal.  The document is reasonably brief and well-illustrated.

Interesting news about Harrison Ford. Last year on "Good Morning America" he said , "... it's the time to come together and, make an effort to, make people understand that we require - not just here in the United States but throughout the world - meaningful climate legislation..." And, today we learn , He recently revealed in an interview the extent of his love for piloting, telling Britain's Live magazine, "Learning to fly was a work of art. I'm so passionate about flying I often fly up the coast for a cheeseburger. Now, far be it from me, a citizen of the Air Capital of the World, a city that frequently hosts Mr. Ford (see here , here , and here ) for flight training, to condemn his love of flying.  I'd love  to have a private jet.   What I -- and so many others -- object to is being lectured to about 'global warming' and 'carbon footprints' from people who have carbon footprints the size of Greenland.   Note: The

The Wall Street Journal   has a lengthy piece about the problems of the IPCC today (subscription may be required).  Here is one of its key paragraphs: The problem stems from the IPCC's thorny mission: Take sophisticated and sometimes inconclusive science, and boil it down to usable advice for lawmakers. To meet that goal, scientists working with the IPCC say they sometimes faced institutional bias toward oversimplification, a Wall Street Journal examination shows. The problem is more complicated and insidious than just oversimplification: It is an institutional bias in favor of perpetuating the 'science' of 'global warming.'  What do I mean?  It is estimated that universities, think tanks, and federal labs have received more than $80 billion in funding with regard to the global warming 'problem.' Just last week, newspapers in Kansas were touting an eight-figure grant to four in-state universities to study the effects of global warming (it is just assumed

Wish I got paid to do studies (with our tax dollars) on topics like this.  

I found this post at Steve McIntryre's blog fascinating. It compares climate science in the wake of Climategate to Enron once it started to unravel. I have read the book about Enron, Conspiracy of Fools,   discussed in the post (note: for a time, WeatherData did business with Enron, long before it fell apart) and I find the comparison surprisingly apt. In the now 28-year history of WeatherData, Enron was one of only three companies that I would not continue to do business with.  Something struck me as very wrong with them. Before going any further let  me unequivocally state there are honest, excellent scientists in climate science.  That said, the IPCC-related climate enterprise reminds me, at times, of Enron's "creative" accounting. Enron set up hugely complicated "off balance sheet" transfers of assets that generated "profits."  They also creatively used "mark to market" asset valuations in ways that no outsider could understand. 

When I saw this headline, ESPN Suspends Kornheiser for Comments About Storm I wondered what someone could say about meteorology that would get them in trouble with ESPN.  Then, I read the article.  Never mind!

No one really believes that the “science is settled” or that “the debate is over.”  Scientists and others that say this seem to want to advance a particular agenda.  There is nothing more detrimental to public trust than such statements. A pro-GW post from Dr. Judith Curry, lifted from Watts Up with That.   Recently, I received a comment that he was surprised that I, occasionally, post pro-GW pieces even though I am a "lukewarmer" (see Dr. Curry's piece for a definition). I am pleased to provide quality scientific information regardless of source or the author's political stances. I usually post more on the skeptical side because so much of the pro-GW "science is settled" rhetoric is so over the top or outright misinformed (yes, Sen. Boxer, it is still summer in Brazil and will be for nearly another month), plus media coverage is quite biased toward the pro-GW side.

Many of you have written wanting to see Miracle at Greensburg.  I'll be presenting it at Wichita's wonderful Exploration Place on Saturday, May 22, at 1pm and 3pm. It will be held in the Creative Learning Studio.  Kim and I will have copies of Warnings  available for purchase and autographing.

For the first time ever, Wichita will have a meteorological winter (defined as December 1 through February 28th) without the temperature ever touching 60°F. Enough, already! Hat tip:   Finger on the Weather.

If you go to the link below, you will hear Barbara Boxer talk about hurricanes. She says , • In last 30 years, annual sea surface temperatures in the main Atlantic hurricane development region increased 2°F, coinciding with an increase in the destructive energy of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes.  Here is the latest study on the subject of hurricanes and global warming.  You can read the highlights at Roger Pielke, Jr.'s blog .   It says the same thing as previous studies:  There is no increase in number or intensity of hurricanes.  Senator Boxer was 0 for 2. As previously stated, I dislike politics and I resist blogging about it. That said, it would be nice if politicians of both sides could get the elementary science correct or, if that is asking too much, refrain from pontificating about it. The global warming debate is difficult enough for the average person to follow without having to sort through politicians misstating elementary science and scientific studie

For people who profess to fear warm temperatures, the climate community sure seems to love them in winter.  While the big news is that the British Met Office just called for a "do over" with regard to the world temperature record, I was amused to read in the news story, At a meeting on Monday of about 150 climate scientists in the quiet Turkish seaside resort of Antalya,  I did a little checking and here is what the tourist web sites say about this location. This idyllic location results in the region basking in a glorious typical Mediterranean climate of long, hot summers and mild winters.  Antalya  is situated upon a cliff overlooking the sea, and due to its proximity to near by mountain ranges the region is protected from cold northerly winds. If they are that concerned about our carbon footprints, why don't try video conferencing?

I do not want to be political in this blog, politics is not a subject that interests me. But, Barbara Boxer's citing of hot weather this month in Brazil as demonstrating 'climate change' at a Senate hearing today is just too much.  As she should have learned in fourth grade, it is SUMMER in Brazil. February is the hottest month of the year in Rio. There is nothing unusual about three days above 100° in Brazil in February. It is just embarrassing to hear this stated on Capitol Hill (the link will take you to the videotape so you can see/hear it for yourself). This debate needs to be carried on at a much higher level.

Phil Smith at the award ceremony with Edsel Ford I am blessed to be part of an incredible family.  The latest chapter is the honor just conveyed on my brother, Phil, by Ford Motor Company for public service. Phil was one of just four in the U.S. to receive this award. I'll let Ford explain, Phil Smith, Executive Vice-President of Dick Smith Ford, has been chosen to receive the Ford ‘Salute to Dealers’ award based on his honorable volunteer and fund-raising efforts. Smith is passionate about helping people who are less fortunate both locally and overseas. Here in Kansas City, he volunteers every week at the St. James Food Kitchen. For the last 6 years he has served as director of operations for the Wednesday night servings. Throughout his time, he has cared for and served more than 40,000 poor and homeless people. Every Sunday afternoon and Monday evening Smith can be found in Kansas City’s Jackson County Jail, counseling inmates as a chaplain’s assistant. Smith has also been

Earlier today, I posted about how foreign newspapers are doing a far better job of covering the various climate scandals than the U.S. media. Here a followup from Germany delivered by a German climate scientist.

An analysis as to why Climategate and its progeny are "non-news" in the United States.

As many of you know, I have a high opinion of Tom Fuller as an environmental reporter.  I think his comments about Steve McIntyre  are right on the money.

A fascinating article about India's developing food problem from The Wall Street Journal.   Subscription might be required to access article.  Turns out there can be too much of a good thing.

For folks terrified of warmer weather, the UN climate commissars sure do have a strange affinity for the balmy climes of Bali. A humorous article about the UN's latest taxpayer-supported field trip to Bali -- with a serious point.  As Glenn Reynolds says, "I'll believe global warming is a serious problem when the people telling me its a problem start acting  like it is a problem."

I have an article in current newsletter for Stadium Managers.  It is about lightning during winter weather events.

The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society reviews books, so Kim sent them two advance copies of Warnings in hopes they would choose to review it.  A few days later, I received this email from the executive director of the AMS, Keith Seitter: Mike, A couple of pre-publication review copies of your book arrived yesterday.  We will be using one to get a review and I took the other one to read on my daily train ride as I find time.  I'm only a few chapters in but thoroughly enjoying it so far. Keith I wrote back telling Keith how pleased I was that he had a favorable first impression of the book.  Two days later, this email arrived:  Mike, I took a vacation day today so I could stay home and finish your book.  Just put it down.  Just terrific! Keith Wow! I was humbled and thrilled to learn he enjoyed it.  So, I asked if he would write a short review that we could use and he graciously agreed: Review "Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weathe

AccuWeather radar at 9:25pm.  There is a lot of lighting in the thunderstorms near Amarillo and they are moving northeast.  With all of the cold weather, we have had relatively little lightning in the U.S. so far in 2010. UPDATE:  9:41pm Saturday.  The chances of freezing rain with those thunderstorms seems to be increasing slightly.  The multi-colored area on this map indicate areas where glaze ice may accumulate. The temperatures which are marginal. If there is enough cold air, we could see enough ice to cause traffic problems .

Here is an updated forecast for the current winter storm and a southern storm expected to strike early next week. Click to enlarge. It is important not to take the snow placement too literally, allow about two counties leeway. Some freezing rain may occur in Kansas from around Harper to Wichita to around Kansas City late Saturday night through Sunday morning.

Tom Fuller has a great summary of where we are with Climategate and related scandals. I especially like his description of "lukewarmers" which is approximately where I fall on the scale of belief.

Greensburg's City Hall gets a new sign driven by solar energy.

So right away I knew it was a good idea. Your most important responsibility, as the parent of an adolescent, is to be a hideous embarrassment to your child. Fortunately, most of us parents have a natural flair for this. Dave Barry is a man of great wisdom and I'll never forget reading Dave's column where he described driving the Oscar Mayer Wienermobile over to his son's school and getting on the PA system, "Rob Barry, please report to the Wienermobile." The original column is here.   So, it was with a tug of nostalgia that I saw Dave post photos of Rob and, now, Sophie with their dad and two generations of Wienermobiles. (click to enlarge photos) And, Dave, I think you should arrive at your book signings in the Wienermobile. It never hurts to class things up a bit.

Steve McIntyre , the person who blew up the hockey stick, has been "de-invited" to present to a conference on dendro-climatology (the 'science' of reconstructing climate using tree cores). The pettiness of climate scientists revealed in Climategate continues unabated.

This map depicts the probability of 4" or more of accumulation between 6pm Saturday and 6pm Sunday.

A "weird" column from Thomas Friedman in today's New York Times.

Roger Pielke, Jr. has a great post on how global warming is being blamed for both more and less fog in northern California.

Earlier today, Warnings  ranked in the three hundred thousands with Amazon.  Up to 256,880 now! Considering you can find books ranked in the six millions, I'm very pleased.

An "alert reader" let me know that Dave is going to be one of the keynote speakers at the 2010 American Society of Industrial Security meeting and exposition in Dallas. WeatherData has been an exhibitor at that convention every year since 1987. It is one thing for Dave to be following me around on my book tour (see below), but tracking me down at a convention is just too much! Dave, I don't want you hogging our booth, so that paying customers can't get in to sign up for our superb, lifesaving SkyGuard ® service. So, I'll make you a deal: I understand you like bar-b-que . Whoever sells the most books from release date (mine, May 1; yours May 4) to September 1st buys the other dinner at Sonny Bryan's. Deal?

I have been asked that question again. To save my new readers from having to go through the archives, the answer is here . None of my positions has changed in the wake of Climategate, so the posting is still valid.

The "Science Is Settled" pro-GW crowd keeps trying to regain lost ground amongst the myriad of scandals and winter weather that keeps being uncooperative. The last few days, we have been subjected to numerous "weather is not climate" stories. Example here,   and, from blog follower Geri, here . I  won't bother to list the other 151 articles that Google News says contain that phrase. Actually, they couldn't be more wrong.  Climate = weather. Don't believe me?  I just pulled my trusty Oxford Dictionary of Current English  off the shelf and found this definition:   Climate: Prevailing weather conditions of an area.   Not a technical enough source? Here is what the AMS's Glossary of Meteorology  says:   Climate - the long-term manifestations of weather. Of course, the 'weather' can be unusual and atypical of the climate of an area (i.e., the snow that accumulated in Florida last week), but that snow storm is still a part of Florida's &q

I just learned that Dave Barry has a book coming out in "May, 2010." I immediately went to the link and found out that his book comes out May 4, three days after mine. So, Dave, I look forward to meeting you face to face on our book tours, and I'm glad I can get people into the stores so they'll consider buying your  book. You're welcome.

If you read the entire interview, congratulations on your tenacity. I have a few wrap-up comments.  Perhaps because of his suspension from his position at CRU, Dr. Jones has had three months of contemplation, which -- judging from his comments in the interview -- appear to have been helpful. While I disagree with a number of his specifics, the interview reveals a scientist I or any other scientist could sit down with, have a cup of coffee and a reasonable discussion regarding these important issues. I don't believe that would have been possible prior to Climategate. I have previously stated that some good will likely come out of this mess. And that is that the "skeptics" (I dislike that term) have seen their concerns validated and will be more likely to engage in constructive dialog.  And, the "warmists" (I dislike that term) have learned that hubris is an especially distasteful character trait in a scientist and will be more likely to engage in constructive

Here is the conclusion of the interview with Dr. Phil Jones by the BBC.   K - How much faith do you have - and should we have - in the Yamal tree ring data from Siberia? Should we trust the science behind the palaeoclimate record? First, we would all accept that palaeoclimatic data are considerably less certain than the instrumental data. However, we must use what data are available in order to look at the last 1,000 years. I believe that our current interpretation of the Yamal tree-ring data in Siberia is sound. Yamal is just one series that enters some of the millennial long reconstructions that are available. Nonsense.   In order to believe the MWP is as minor or non-existent as contended by Dr. Jones in the IPCC "hockey stick" one would have to believe that the Vikings bore through tens of feet of ice to leave artifacts to be discovered if the glaciers ever retreated along with lying in their written records. While I agree we do not know whether the MWP was a worldwid

Here is the second part of the BBC's interview with Dr. Phil Jones, one of the world's leading pro-GW scientists-advocates who has been at the center of the Climategate controversy. F - Sceptics of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) suggest that the official surface record paints a different story from the actual station records. To restore trust, should we start again with new quality control on input data in total transparency? First, I am assuming again that you are referring to the surface record from both land and marine regions of the world, although in this answer as you specifically say "station" records, I will emphasise the land regions. There is more than one "official" surface temperature record, based on actual land station records. There is the one we have developed in CRU, but there are also the series developed at NCDC and GISS. Although we all use very similar station datasets, we each employ different ways of assessing the quality of