Posts

Inadequate Warning of the Kankakee Tornado

Image
NBC Chicago Undoubtedly Wednesday morning, you will be hearing about the tornado which struck the Kankakee, Illinois, area (south of Chicago) around 6:25pm. The damage is considerable. Chicago's WGN-TV says, "Kankakee County was severely damaged." There is report of two people killed by this tornado across the border in Lake Village, Indiana.  After the poorly warned tornadoes in southwest Michigan Friday, one would think the NWS would have made it a point to have its radars operating on optimum settings and then jump on any supercell thunderstorm with tornado characteristics. It appears this did not happen in Kankakee.  Below is what I posted on Twitter/X at 6:04pm. I do not use the term "tornado warning" as I believe it should be reserved for the National Weather Service (NWS) which is the official warning source.  Unfortunately, we did not hear from the NWS regarding the tornado threat for quite a while. While a severe thunderstorm warning for "softball ...

Update: Today's Tornado Risk: High Risk of Strong Tornadoes Forecast

Image
I am providing real-time coverage on Twitter/X  @usweatherexpert.  The SPC has updated its forecast. Using the combination of probability and forecast tornado intensity the red area is a high risk  on my 4-point scale. It is forecast to be a major tornado day in the Midwest. The time to make preliminary preparations is now.  The red area with the cross hatching means there is (on my scale) a high  risk of tornadoes of EF-3 or stronger. The threat will begin ramping up 2p or after. The yellow area has an enhanced  risk of EF-2 or stronger tornadoes.  The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. The single hatching means there is a chance of EF-2 or stronger intensity tornadoes.  The green is a non-zero but very small probability of a tornado. If one occurs, it could strong (EF-2 or stronger).  In addition, the greatly enlarged brown area farther southwest means there is a significant risk of tornadoes, some of which could be strong....

Tuesday's Tornado Forecast - Updated 4:30pm

Image
This forecast has been updated. Scroll up.  Looks like another active day tomorrow and, since we want to make sure Governor Whitmer is informed , here is a tornado outlook. There are two risk areas, please scroll down to see both.   Midwest Tornado Risk - Updated 4:25pm Monday The yellow indicates an enhanced  risk of a tornado and, if one occurs, it could be strong (hatching). The brown indicates a significant risk of tornadoes with -- again -- a chance of a strong storm. This includes far southwest Michigan. With the update, I have put a small part of northeast Kansas and western Missouri into the "significant" tornado risk area. This is because it now appears the low pressure system and warm front will stay west and north -- respectively -- of the KC area.  I am also concerned that parts of the yellow area may need to be upgraded to a higher forecast risk category for late tomorrow afternoon.  The green means a 2% chance of a tornado which is a very smal...

Today's Tornado Forecast

Image
The area in brown has a significant risk of a tornado or two later today. Please keep up on the weather in this region. 

Tornado Forecasting: Do We Have to Politicize Everything?! - Updated

Image
Governor Whitmer: If you wish to be helpful, get on the bandwagon for a National Disaster Review Board which would investigate situations like this with an eye to making improvements in the way we forecast and react to disasters.  Friday's forecast for southwest Michigan was poor. There were unforecast major tornadoes. While I don't like it, it happens. I've certainly made my share of poor forecasts over a 50+ year career. The forecaster(s) involved likely feels like kicking themselves and is resolving to do better in the future.  That stipulated, there were no cuts in tornado watch forecasters at the National Storm Prediction Center where tornado watches are issued which, by the way, is not in Michigan but in Norman, Oklahoma. President Trump had nothing to do with it. I suspect Governor Whitmer already knows it. Attempting to politicize a poor weather forecast is beyond the pale.  I also fault the Detroit News  for playing along . They didn't even contact the Nat...

Some Economic Thoughts

Image
It has been a long time since I've run anything about economics and since the weather is pretty calm right now, it is a good time.  Unfortunately, the U.S. is a long way from capitalism as it should be practiced. These days we have a lousy version some call "crony capitalism." The well-connected prosper. In order for capitalism (I prefer the term "free enterprise") to work properly, a society needs a strong moral foundation -- which we have frittered away the past 50 years.  When I was in college, we used to argue whether it was excessive for the President of a company's salary to be more than 15 times that of the lowest paid, full-time worker. Unfortunately, today, it sometimes 4,000+ times -- terribly excessive*. Regardless, what we have now is better than socialism or, especially, communism which do nothing but breed misery and poverty for the average person.  At the end of the above cycle, a nation looks something like this.  Remember with this year'...