From Twitter/X yesterday afternoon With the 250th Independence Day period next week, there will be millions  of Americans heading to the airports and inevitably giant problems with develop -- especially if the weather is bad.  The airlines do everything they can to fill flights to 100% -- which means there are few extra seats for you if your flight is cancelled.  More than ever, you cannot afford to be passive in these situations. You are far more likely to get a successful or somewhat successful resolution if you 1) research and 2) speak-up. With regard to the above, AA Flight 2117 is from DFW to Orlando. It was delayed more than four hours and -- more often than not -- those delays only get worse. The other flights to Orlando are also delayed.  If I were at DFW, and considering the flight is not supposed to take off until significantly after midnight, I would be worried my flight will be cancelled after all of that waiting. Then, things could turn into days of wait...

The title of this essay is from a press release that indirectly "blames the victim." The author is Sedgwick County Emergency Management regarding a fatal tornado that occurred just north of Wichita at 1:14 this morning. The tornado was rated EF-2 ("strong") intensity. I believe the wording is unfortunate as discussed below.  Photo: KAKE.com. Note that with a basement, as little as seconds to dash down the stairs might have been sufficient to avoid injury.  In what has increasingly and unfortunately become the norm in tornado situations, no NWS tornado warning was issued even though: Rotation was depicted on radar Radar shows lofted debris People from outside the NWS are observing tornadoes and bringing them to NWS's and the public's attention.  I want to be clear: the tornado formed practically on top of the home and there was probably no way to have warned in time to help the man killed. But there is absolutely no reason a tornado warning could not have bee...

The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes and the hatching indicates that any tornadoes may be strong. Please keep up on the weather this afternoon and evening. 

8pm Update: Flash Flood Forecast Now Until 7am CDT Sunday Red is a high risk of flash flooding.  7am Sunday to 7am Monday Remember: Never  walk or drive through flooded areas.  5:40pm Damaging Wind Forecast NWS just updated their wind forecast. The area outlined in purple is forecast to have occasional 80-100 mph gusts in the 7-11pm CDT time frame with frequent 60-70mph gusts. If correct, there will be widespread power outages!  Prepare accordingly.  I will provide updates on Twitter/X  @usweatherexpert . Today is another day when tornadoes are possible. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes and, where indicated by hatching, any tornadoes could be strong.  There is also an enhanced  risk of damaging winds with gusts above 75 mph in the red area. The yellow/hatched area has a significant risk of gusts to 75 mph. Without the hatching, gusts to 60 mph are forecast to occur. 

There was a lot of controversy in the Midwest Wednesday morning as to whether the forecast tornadoes in the Midwest would develop because of heavy morning rains in the region. Tornadoes require "instability," defined as air rising -- perhaps violently ( > 100 mph) in extreme cases -- if it is warm and humid near the ground and cold aloft. Conventional wisdom is that extensive morning rain diminishes tornado potential.  But that's often not true. Take look at the radar of the same region eight hours later.  While the morning rain may keep the air less unstable, I've documented that some of the very biggest tornadoes and tornado outbreaks are preceded by after midnight on the day of the event. My speculation is the evaporating rain lowers the "lifting condensation level" (LCL). Lower LCL's = tornadoes more likely, other factors equal.  Here are just some of the events I have examined: April 27, 2011 (see radar image nearby from 4:49am).  April 3, 1974...