While the Gulf Coast is rightly concerned about Isaias, there is reason to be concerned that the remains of Pacific Hurricane Rachel could be the most serious storm in southeast California and Arizona since 1976's Hurricane Kathleen.  Flooding Rains As much as eight inches is forecast along the tentative  path of the storm. It is entirely possible the forecast path may shift east or, especially, west on later forecasts. Given this is a desert, there is little doubt that these rains will cause significant flooding. Roads and railroads could be washed out.  Damaging Winds Again, this path of higher winds could shift east or west with time but with gusts to near 80 mph, considerable damage is possible, including loss of power.  When comparing to Hurricane Kathleen, please recall the population of the area is much higher now than it was 50 years ago, so the potential for damage is greater.  Of course, I will keep you updated.

12:15pm. Hurricane Hunter aircraft shows the pressure has dropped six millibars in 2 hours which will likely pave the way for rapid intensification.  -- original post, still valid --  A hurricane and storm surge watch is in effect for the pink are on the map. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the area in yellow. Peak winds are forecast to be 110 mph while it is over the Gulf and somewhat less strong when it makes landfall. A major storm surge is forecast. I will update this afternoon. 

Three of thousands of news graphics about the current El Nino. A record El Nino (an area of warmer than average seawater along the Equator from South America west into the Pacific) is developing. So far, the media -- over and over -- has hyped the effects of the oceanic current.  But an article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society correctly points out there is another side to El Nino occurrences. It looked back on the giant 1997-98 El Nino and tallied up the pluses and minuses. For the United States, The Negative Costs $1.7 billion (not adjusted for inflation to 2026) in losses $400 million in federal government relief $125 million for state assistance $700 million agricultural losses $ 70  million losses in sales of snow removal equipment $190 million loss to the tourist industry  189 people killed The Economic Gains $6.7 billion, reduced heating costs $5.6 billion, increased sales of everything from houses and other goods $380 million, reduced snow re...

There are three hurricanes that are going to affect the United States in the next ten days or so. There are three important weather systems that will affect the U.S. Lower 48 during the next 3 to 15 days. The above map is a rough overview. Note: Isaias may come inland farther west than shown on this map.  Above represents the forecast rain amounts for the next five days. Isaias is along the Gulf Coast and pretty well speaks for itself.  Hurricane #1 will move from the Pacific into Baja and will spread moderate to heavy rain over the Intermountain Region from days 3 to 9. Flooding possible in spots.  Tropical Storm or Hurricane #2. It will move into the body of Mexico and spread rain, possibly heavy, over Texas (Day 5 to 9) and the south central United States. Rain over Texas is badly needed and relatively little flooding is expected at this point.  As of 5:30pm, Isaias is developing in the Bay of Campeche in the far southwest Gulf.  Here is the preliminary forec...

The National Hurricane Center is now forecasting a threat of a hurricane along the Gulf Coast.  H = hurricane.  S = Tropical Storm.  D = Tropical Depression.  I'll have more info this evening. Stay tuned!

A n advertisement by WSI for the for-profit, fee-based NWS Nexrad Service  Today was Day 3 for the unavailability of NWS radars along the northeast Gulf Coast (they finally came up about 2pm Eastern time). While the radars were available to the controlling NWS office, they could not be used by anyone else. This was just the latest of the increasingly common NWS/NOAA fiascos that started about 20 years ago and have become much, much worse in recent months.  The NWS has no announced plan to fix this. In fact, the NWS has indicated it has no interest in improving the radar network .  While the radars were unavailable, flash flooding was occurring in the area. There is some threat of a tropical storm or hurricane the end of this week. The Weather Channel's legendary meteorologist Jim Cantore offered a suggestion on Twitter/X Monday morning: One would have thought he suggested tearing down the Statue of Liberty. "Free" weather -- no matter how poor the quality -- is treated li...