Hurricane watch for the Island of Hawaii (a/k/a "The Big Island) with tropical storm warnings for Hawaii, Maui and Lanai. 

 No blog update today. No feeling.

Hurricane "Nolo" (not to be confused with Polo, also in progress) is threatening the Big Island (Island of Hawaii) with flooding rain, dangerous storm surge and, perhaps, damaging winds.  We should have a much better idea of the future path and intensity of the hurricane tomorrow and I'll provide additional information.  New Mexico and the Southwest Extremely heavy rain is falling in New Mexico east of Interstate 25 (the blank triangle is because New Mexico does not have adequate NWS radar coverage). Flooding has occurred in a number of areas. The town of Mora, NM had its high school flooded and numerous roads are washed out.  Hurricane Polo continues to move toward Baja California. It may cause a dangerous storm surge and dangerous swells at Cabo as the storm passes to the west. It also has the potential to cause additional flooding in the Southwest if it holds together when it crosses the board.

Here is the flash flood forecast from now until 6am Thursday. Please take this seriously and -- whatever you do -- do not cross flooded areas by foot or by car.  Powerful Hurricane Polo is still forecast to make a turn to the north the first of next week and it has the potential to bring more flooding to the Southwest. Note: storm surge flooding is possible in Cabo. Hawaii The Big Island is again in the "cone" (white area which is the range of uncertainty in the forecast path of the storm's center). Right now, the bigger threats are flooding and storm surge coastal flooding. Whether wind will be a major threat will depend on the exact path of the storm. 

The forecast below is still valid. However, at the end, you'll note a caution about Polo eventually threatening the Southwest. The new National Hurricane Forecast now reflects that possibility with a northward turn at Day 5. The maximum winds of Polo are 180 mph -- a very powerful hurricane.  Beyond Day 5, the forecast becomes very low confidence. Don't worry at this point. I'll keep everyone updated.  Note: I am not covering the East Coast storm because there are numerous bloggers and meteorologists who specialize in East Coast weather. Please see my Twitter/X feed: @usweatherexpert  where I am providing info on that storm.  --- original posting, 10:20a Tuesday --- Here is the updated flash flood forecast from now through 6am Wednesday Mountain Time. I would prepare for the potential for flooding in the yellow and, especially, in the red area. This is the flooding forecast from 6am Wednesday to 6am Thursday.  Category 5 Hurricane Polo off the Mexican Pacific Co...

This forecast has been updated.  Please scroll up.  This is a serious flood threat.  People traveling as well as residents should pay attention. Above is the flash flood risk forecast valid from 6am Tuesday to 6am Wednesday. The yellow had a moderate risk while the red has a high risk (on my scale).  This is the forecast for the period from 6am Wednesday to 6am Thursday.   Here is the cumulative flood forecast from Tuesday through Friday.  The dark blue area is where major flooding is possible with significant, but not as serious, flooding in the pale blue area.  For the meteorologists reading, please take a look at this satellite loop . The cluster of clouds south of Guadalajara is rapidly intensifying Hurricane Polo. It is moving little at the moment but should begin moving to the northwest tomorrow (Tuesday). As it does, it will feed rich Pacific moisture toward New Mexico and nearby areas setting the stage for flooding. Some of the models are showi...