How Did the Sunday Morning Tornado Forecasts Work Out?
Long-time readers will recall our policy of verifying our major storm forecasts, whether they were good or bad. Sunday, I differed considerably from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center's forecast of where tornadoes were going to occur. So, I posted both forecasts. Above is the 9am forecast from my blog : the NWS's tornado forecast was in brown, mine in red. Hatching meant strong tornadoes were possible, per the NWS. I do not attempt to forecast tornado intensity. Now that the affected NWS offices have completed their storm surveys, the result is below. There were ten tornadoes: both inverted triangles and the 4 "T's" are their locations. Clearly our forecast was superior as it encompassed all of the tornadoes. It did not forecast a large tornado threat area (brown) in western Kansas and northern Oklahoma where no tornadoes occurred. The strongest tornado was one of F-2 intensity which is the lowest threshold in the "strong" torna...
