Updated forecasts are here .  4:30pm Update Tornado watch in effect for the Island of Kauai.  4pm Update With one tornado having likely already occurred on Kauai, the radar just failed again. Hopefully, we'll get it back but it is not likely as the winds and rains have been increasing.  So, our already limited tornado warning capability is about gone unless we get the radar back.  3:15pm Update:  Winds are gusting from the east to 45 mph at Lihue, which is on the side of Kauai away from the approaching hurricane (see map below).  At least two roads are already closed due to flooding. Heavy rains (yellow and orange below) are occurring.  Noon Update: Flash flood warnings  (green polygons) are now in effect for about the northeast half of Kauai. The rain (multi-colors) has tapered off the light showers for the time being after heavier squalls earlier in the day. Updated surge forecast: Remember: there will be waves of up to 15' feet on top of the su...

11am Hawaii Time: As of this time, there is no indication Lowell is weakening. It also appears to be moving slightly east of the path shown in the map below. Preparations should be rushed to completion.  7am Hawaii Time: It looks to me that the center of the storm may move on a slightly more eastern path than shown. As of 7am, the maximum sustained winds (with higher gusts) are 120 mph. This storm is likely to cause significant damage. Tropical storm WARNING now for Oahu. The Kauai radar is now operating. Thank you, NWS!! -- map updated 8am Hawaii time -- Hurricane Warnings are now in effect for Kauai and Niihau.  Tropical Storm Watch for Oahu (includes Honolulu). Red = Hurricane Warning. Yellow = tropical storm watch. White is the path of the center  of the storm at the specified times (Hawaiian Standard). Brown is the radius of sustained 75 mph or stronger winds. Amber is the radius of tropical storm force winds (39 to 74 mph).  The red line to the west (upper left...

As I feared (see below), the National Hurricane Center has moved the path of Hurricane Lowell farther east, which requires a hurricane watch for Kauai and Niihau. The pink/blue = tropical storm warning  with a hurricane watch. Red is a hurricane warning for the western Hawaii Atoll, which are largely unpopulated islands and mini-islands. Take a look at the brown area which is the radius of hurricane force winds ( ≥ 75 mph) and the amber is tropical storm force winds (39-74 mph). Remember, the white is the forecast path of the center  of the storm.  From the National Hurricane Center  The surf will be more than rough, it will be life-threatening. Below are the storm surges as forecast by NHC. Of course, the high waves generated by Lowell will be on top of the storm surge. There will be flooding, especially on Kauai and landslides are possible in the mountains.  While this is not as strong as Iniki (whose center went right over Kauai), all hurricanes are dangerous...

                                          Blue is the tropical storm warning for Nihau and Kauai. Red is the hurricane warning for the (largely unpopulated) Hawaii Atolls. Note the track has been shifted a bit to the east again and it would not surprise me if it were shifted east again with the forecast issued this afternoon (Hawaii time).  Wind gusts of 70+ mph are possible on Niihau. Wind gusts of 50-60 mph are possible on Kauai, especially at the higher elevations and near Barking Sands and the Na' Pali Coast, including the Canyon rim .  I am very concerned about flash flooding and possible landslides.  Please follow instructions from local authorities.  From the National Hurricane Center: KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lowell's center is forecast to pass just west of Kauai County late Monday into early Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect f...

This is what we like to see! If this is (high confidence) forecast is correct, it will take us into record territory with regard to hurricanes and the Atlantic Basin.

An excellent point! --- original post --- Why is the timing of college football games evidently top secret? This conforms with what the official NCAA rules say.  Like many, I was appalled by the outcome of last night's Western Michigan v Michigan game. Multiple sources, both TV and sports magazine, say the timing of all devices are synched. Great! That is as it should be.  I spent time with Grok last night and it, plus the NBC rules analyst, say the stadium and TV times displayed are the official time.  If so, then the clock expired while the ball was in the air and Western Michigan won. Period. Yet, there is an evidently a super-secret, password-protected, decoder ring, eyes-only timing system that is the ultra-special official, official-official game timing. And, it is the one (even though we can't see it) that determines the game. Absurd! This is an important point. Put a $3 GPS chip into each of these devices, set them to "countdown" mode -- problem solved! Now th...