Posted late this afternoon on X. This is an addition to the essay below.  The National Weather Service is falling apart.    That is the only reasonable conclusion to be drawn by informed observation of its cumulative output during the past, highly active, 30 days of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.    Before proceeding, I want to stipulate that the Trump Administration’s handling of the cost cutting and downsizing of NOAA earlier this year was unhelpful. Yes, there was – and still is – fat in the NWS and NOAA. Cutting the deficit should be a high priority but those cuts need to be well thought out and well executed.    I also want to state there are exhausted people in the NWS who are suffering from vast amounts of overwork due to manpower shortages that existed before President Trump took office -- that were made worse by President Trump’s layoffs and then rehiring, in some cases,  people with little to no experience. The quality of work of bu...

Long-time readers will recall our policy of verifying our major storm forecasts, whether they were good or bad.  Sunday, I differed considerably from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center's forecast of where tornadoes were going to occur. So, I posted both forecasts. Above is the 9am forecast from my blog : the NWS's tornado forecast was in brown, mine in red. Hatching meant strong tornadoes were possible, per the NWS. I do not attempt to forecast tornado intensity. Now that the affected NWS offices have completed their storm surveys, the result is below. Updated 9:45am Thursday for two more tornadoes.   There were 12 tornadoes: inverted triangles are their locations. Clearly our forecast was superior as it encompassed all but one of the tornadoes. It did not forecast a large geographic tornado threat area (brown) in western Kansas and northern Oklahoma where no tornadoes occurred. The strongest tornado was one of F-2 intensity which is the lowest threshold...

...I am not able to update with regard to today's storms. Apologies. 

This person was in such a hurry to criticize President Trump and Vice President Vance last week, she forgot to do some very basic research.  The only problem with her contentions? The U.S. Air Force has its own meteorological service and its own international forecast center and headquarters ( fyi, south of Omaha). The tornado warnings for Air Force bases are issued by the Air Force, not by the National Weather Service. 

Tornado Watch Until 5am Tornado Watch Until 4am Please make sure you have multiple ways to receive a warning in the middle of the night! NWS Says This is a "Particularly Dangerous Situation" Forecast as of 11:50am There is a high  risk of violent tornadoes in the area in red. Violent tornadoes are also possible in the area in yellow which has an enhanced risked of tornadoes. The area in brown has a significant risk and, where there is hatching, the tornadoes may be strong. This is an important day to keep up on the latest weather information!