Catastrophic flooding forecast along the San Juan River in southwest Colorado! 10pm Sunday: The NWS has raised the forecast crest on the San Juan River to an incredible 4' above the previous record at Pagosa Springs. This will be catastrophic flooding! From Taylor Trogdon: The flooding will be worse than the most recent flooding. The river is forecast to crest two feet above the previous record! If you happen to have friends/family in Pagosa Springs or other areas along the river, please call them to make sure they know that the forecast was updated this morning. 

It is said that a "gaffe" is when a politician accidentally tells the truth. There's plenty of truth telling in this, recorded live, video of a Democratic politician in Minnesota in October. Note: she accused the "sheriff's nephew" of threatening her but we learned the sheriff does not have a nephew.  I believe her candid thoughts pretty well represented what the D/socialist candidates think . Generally, a vote for them means more Flock cameras, far less freedom and less free enterprise, i.e., what we dealt with during COVID only made permanent. The only thing they want more of is abortion. The item below is from Twitter yesterday evening. The R's have been highly disappointing the past two years but clearly they are the lesser threat to our freedoms than the D's.  When you go to the "web pages" of the people pushing the socialists, you see this or something like it. Zero names. Zero monetary figures. Nothing. They hide because they know t...

7am Sunday Unfortunately, the forecast is on track. Heavy to, in spots, torrential rain is falling in southeast California and parts of Arizona. Flash flood watches and warnings are in effect. Please check with your local trusted source of weather information in order to make sure you have the latest information for your home or business. Again, I strongly discourage travel today and tomorrow.  5:15pm Saturday This is a terribly serious situation as the crest will be very close to the record stage! Many more evacuation orders will be issued. It is vital to have a "go kit." Scroll down to the link to show you what to gather.  12:15p: After I prepared the forecast below, an updated rainfall amount forecast for Arizona came in. More than 8" of rain is forecast to fall in there next three days!  This may cause catastrophic flooding in a few spots with widespread serious flooding. Please see preparedness recommendations below.  -- original post -- This is the flash flood ...

Regardless of whether you are old enough to remember The Tonight Show with Johnny Carson, this visit by a black bear is required viewing!

This is a cumulative   flash flood risk forecast valid from now until Tuesday midday.  The National Water Center's forecast, in the blue areas, is forecasting serious  flooding both in terms of flash flooding and river flooding. The pale blue area is where lesser, but still significant, flooding is possible. This is a serious situation and I urge you -- especially if you live in a low-lying or flood prone area -- to prepare for evacuation in the event of rising waters or an order from local authorities. Also remember, never try to cross flooded areas by foot or by car. With the strong El Nino, this pattern of wet conditions in the Southwest is likely to continue through winter. 

This forecast takes us to November 5. Hurricane season officially ends November 30. I think it is safe to say that the chance of a hurricane striking the United States the rest of this season is very low. While Hawaii has suffered badly this year, we are fortunate that the this and the 2025 Atlantic hurricane seasons have been very mild.