Here is the flash flood forecast from now until 6am Thursday. Please take this seriously and -- whatever you do -- do not cross flooded areas by foot or by car.  Powerful Hurricane Polo is still forecast to make a turn to the north the first of next week and it has the potential to bring more flooding to the Southwest. Note: storm surge flooding is possible in Cabo. Hawaii The Big Island is again in the "cone" (white area which is the range of uncertainty in the forecast path of the storm's center). Right now, the bigger threats are flooding and storm surge coastal flooding. Whether wind will be a major threat will depend on the exact path of the storm. 

The forecast below is still valid. However, at the end, you'll note a caution about Polo eventually threatening the Southwest. The new National Hurricane Forecast now reflects that possibility with a northward turn at Day 5. The maximum winds of Polo are 180 mph -- a very powerful hurricane.  Beyond Day 5, the forecast becomes very low confidence. Don't worry at this point. I'll keep everyone updated.  Note: I am not covering the East Coast storm because there are numerous bloggers and meteorologists who specialize in East Coast weather. Please see my Twitter/X feed: @usweatherexpert  where I am providing info on that storm.  --- original posting, 10:20a Tuesday --- Here is the updated flash flood forecast from now through 6am Wednesday Mountain Time. I would prepare for the potential for flooding in the yellow and, especially, in the red area. This is the flooding forecast from 6am Wednesday to 6am Thursday.  Category 5 Hurricane Polo off the Mexican Pacific Co...

This forecast has been updated.  Please scroll up.  This is a serious flood threat.  People traveling as well as residents should pay attention. Above is the flash flood risk forecast valid from 6am Tuesday to 6am Wednesday. The yellow had a moderate risk while the red has a high risk (on my scale).  This is the forecast for the period from 6am Wednesday to 6am Thursday.   Here is the cumulative flood forecast from Tuesday through Friday.  The dark blue area is where major flooding is possible with significant, but not as serious, flooding in the pale blue area.  For the meteorologists reading, please take a look at this satellite loop . The cluster of clouds south of Guadalajara is rapidly intensifying Hurricane Polo. It is moving little at the moment but should begin moving to the northwest tomorrow (Tuesday). As it does, it will feed rich Pacific moisture toward New Mexico and nearby areas setting the stage for flooding. Some of the models are showi...

As we have been saying for several days, there is a serious threat of flooding in New Mexico. Now, the NWS's National Water Center is forecasting the risk of serious flooding in the dark blue area with a lesser flooding risk in the pale blue area.  More than five inches of rain -- in some areas one-third of the amount of rain that occurs in an entire year -- is forecast in the eastern part of the state. The flood risk begins Tuesday night.  I'll have more on this Monday. 

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