3:05pm Wednesday Update on Hurricane Rafael
Current winds in Hurricane Rafael are 115 mph. This is likely the highest winds the storm will produce. By the end of the forecast period, the winds are forecast to have weakened to 40 mph. However, there is very low confidence in the forecast path is indicated by the huge white area (the "confidence interval) by 72 hours into the storm's path. Currently, the center of the storm is moving over Cuba (see below). Moving over Cuba's rough terrain will cause weakening. As the storm turns farther to the west, drier air and unfavorable atmospheric conditions will cause the weakening. Hopefully, we'll know tomorrow with greater confidence where the storm will ultimately go.