About 70,000 people are without power. Customers = homes + businesses.  Multiple tornadoes have been confirmed in western Illinois and eastern Missouri early this evening. A new tornado or severe thunderstorm watch has been issued. This severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 8pm. Note that tornadoes, 2" hail and 70 mph thunderstorm-generated winds up to 70 mph.  Second severe thunderstorm watch. No tornadoes are forecast. 

Joplin, after the tornado We all remember the 2011 catastrophic Joplin Tornado and the loss of 161 lives — by far the worst single tornado disaster since the civilian tornado warning program began 1957. From 2000 to 2011, the National Weather Service (NWS) was making tremendous progress in warning of tornadoes. Tragically, the NWS and local emergency management during the hour before the tornado arrived did just about everything wrong .  Prior to Joplin, the NWS, on average, provided 13.3 minutes of advance notice and correctly warned of tornadoes 73.3% of the time. In 2007, they reached a superb 78% of the time.  For reasons that are not entirely clear,  the tornado warning program has suffered serious deterioration since 2011.  The NWS’s most recent figures reveal they correctly warn of tornadoes just 57% of the time (a 27% reduction) and, when a warning has been provided, it has dropped to 8 minutes of advance notice (a 40% reduction). NOAA has set a target of 72% of tornadoes to be

The area in brown has a significant risk of tornadoes. There is also a better than average chance of damaging thunderstorm-generated winds.  This hail forecast is the probability of 1" diameter hail or larger. The area in red has an enhanced risk  of large hail. The yellow area has a significant risk. Where the hatching exists, the hail could be 2" or larger.  I will update the forecast this afternoon. 

The forecast was of excellent quality.  Hail up to baseball-sized fell. Congratulations, NWS SPC.  ----- NWS SPC just released this forecast valid until midnight.  The red outline is where hail, perhaps very large, is most likely.  Radar shows what will likely be the hailstorms forming near Manhattan.  9:27pm ----- The NWS SPC is forecasting large hail in Kansas tonight. Forecast valid till 7am. The is a significant risk of hail 1" in diameter in yellow. Where you see hatching, there is a risk of giant hail, 2" in diameter or larger.  With the benefit of the evening data from weather balloons, the HRRR model has changed its forecast. No thunderstorms in southern Kansas this evening.  Midnight: 4am Thursday:

Western Pennsylvania Radar from 8:48pm There are many areas where gusts to 60 mph may occur and there is a chance of a brief, weak, spin-up tornado.  The line of thunderstorms is leaving a trail of power outages.  Customers = homes and businesses. In terms of people, about 60,000 are without power.  --- As of 8:10pm, we have about 30,000 people without electricity in Ohio and about 15,000 in Pennsylvania due to high winds and tornadoes.  This is the radar as the line of thunderstorms moved through Pittsburgh. The white symbols are lightning.  ---- Here is an update from the NWS SPC. The area outlined in red is where tornadoes, severe thunderstorm winds and, in some cases, large hail are most likely between now and 8pm.  Second Tornado Watch Issued: The tornado watch has been cancelled  in Indiana.  Radar at 4:20pm is below. That is a tornado warning (red polygon) north Columbus.  Please keep your eyes on the weather the rest of the evening if you are in the tornado watches. 

We've talked about the topic below many times. The insurance industry has conned many gullible state regulators into giving them rates to reflect higher numbers of disasters, even though disasters are not  increasing .  From one of the same people who believe global warming is a catastrophe , Paul, Ehrlich, this #1 best seller was wrong about everything. Glenn Reynolds has a great column on the topic. No matter how wrong they are, it never affects their confidence!