Another day with an enhanced tornado threat. The tornado forecast below was updated at 1:50pm. The yellow, hatched area has an enhanced  risk of strong tornadoes. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Some good news: After tomorrow, this weather pattern changes and relatively few tornadoes (for the time of year) are expected next week. Dangerous flash flooding The pink area has a high risk  of flash flooding. Statistics show that a disproportionate number of deaths occur in high risk flash flood areas. Please remember the #1 cause of flood fatalities is trying to cross flooded areas by foot or by car.  The red area has an enhanced risk and the yellow area has a significant risk. 

Who'd a thunk it?   California with more tornadoes than Kansas? Kansas has had one tornado so far this year while California has had four. The Great Plains' tornado count is well below average while the Midwest is running higher than average.  I suspect the pattern may begin to favor more tornadoes in the Plains after about April 15th but that is just educated speculation at this point. 

9:45pm tornado watch until 4am. 9pm Reminder: I am posting updates on Twitter/X @usweatherexpert. Tornado Watch: Small Parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas, 3:50p Please note "strong" tornadoes are forecast. You can find a national list and map of public shelters, here .  3:30pm Radar with Multiple Confirmed Tornadoes and  Corresponding  Warnings in Northeast Texas   The area in orange is the likeliest area for tornadoes between now and 5pm. The longer-term forecast for tornadoes until 7am Saturday. Second Tornado Watch, 3pm. Please monitor trusted sources of information.  I will provide addition updates at Twitter/X @usweatherexpert. 

Another outbreak of strong tornadoes is forecast again Friday afternoon and night. The highest risk is the red area with an enhanced risk in the yellow area. Hatching = strong tornadoes are forecast to occur.  I will update again late this morning. 

I stayed up to get you the latest rainfall amount forecast for the next 48 hours (12:30a Friday).  Yes, that is another 7-9 inches in the amber area from now until 7pm Saturday evening. Catastrophic flooding is forecast by the National Water Center in a band from Ft. Smith and Mena to Louisville.  If you live in an area which has flooded before, it will likely do so with this "historic" (NWS) flood event. It is necessary to be able to leave on short notice if an evacuation is ordered or if you observe rapidly rising water. Keep in mind the 100% cause of flood deaths is driving or walking through a flooded area.  If you are a logistics manager, forget about getting long haul shipments via truck or rail through this region the next few days. 

For the day before, the area in red represents a much higher than usual forecast of strong tornadoes. I'm providing this notice so everyone can prepare accordantly.