A tornado watch has been issued for the area outlined in red until 11pm. Thunderstorms are developing west of Memphis. If you live in or near this area, please keep up on the latest weather information! I will provide updates on Twitter/X  at @usweatherexpert. --- original posting ---  The area in brown has a significant risk of a few tornadoes. Please keep up on the weather in these areas later today. 

Photo taken outside of Neodesha The City of Neodesha, in southeast Kansas, is paying people -- generously -- who want to move there. An overview: Up to $15,000 student loan repayment. 100% Kansas income tax waiver through 2026. College scholarship incentive up to $25,000. One year pass to Neodesha Splash Zone.  Six month subscription to local newspaper.  USD 461 school activities pass.  Two tickets to Neodesha Chamber of Commerce's annual auction and dinner.  The Wichita Eagle  has a story here .  Neodesha  (pronounced nee-oh-duh-shay, if you’re not familiar) provides details    here .  Kathleen and I love living in Kansas and Neodesha is in a particularly pretty area. If you are interested in a change, I recommend checking this out. 

Yesterday, with great fanfare, the media brought the NOAA spring weather outlooks to everyone's attention. One place you didn't find them? Here.  While long range weather outlooks generate lots  of "clicks," I refuse to post them not only because their skill is -- at best -- inconsistent; but because they are often terribly wrong. This blog is about forecasting what is the best weather science can produce.  Let's look at the forecast for this past winter and what actually happened. Look at the very top: the "skill" of the forecasts is negative. Meaning, overall, you would have been better off with a forecast the opposite  of what was forecast.  Two years ago, these same long range forecast product called for drier than normal conditions in California when they actually had one of the wettest winters in their history! I have not been able to find any seasonal forecaster with consistent skill. So, that is why I don't post them.  If the NWS is looking f...

In another round of what I believe is "malicious compliance," the National Weather Service (NWS) is going to further cut back the vital weather balloon network. And, I'm told, more balloon cuts are on the way.  The NWS was -- unnecessarily -- cutting the network before President Trump was sworn in (circles). Now, they cutting more of the network back to, evidently, generate more media outrage and put more pressure on the Trump Administration. I say that because, according my sources (and I have several), not all of these offices have lost people compared to 30 days ago. They are creating a pressure campaign as we are going into the meat of tornado season and hurricane season is immediately thereafter.  Denver and Chatham (MA) have stopped launching balloons completely, the latter station has closed completely. The station in Alaska is now one per day as are all of the X's, effective immediately.  A Dangerous Game!    Russia has cut its network back to once per d...

Things have calmed down in terms of major storms. While the rain in the Northwest is unneeded, the rain elsewhere is generally beneficial. Unfortunately, more rain is needed in the central Great Plains into the Southwest but it looks dry for at least the next seven days. 

Second Tornado Watch First Tornado Watch Tornado watch in effect for "a couple of strong tornadoes" from now until 7pm CDT. It includes the south part of Chicagoland, the Quad Cities and western Indiana. Please monitor the weather the rest of the day! I am providing real-time updated information on Twitter @usweatherexpert.  --- Tornado Forecast Until 7am CDT --- The yellow, hatched area has an  enhanced risk of strong tornadoes this afternoon and evening. The brown area, which includes Chicago and the Quad Cities, has a significant risk of tornadoes. With the 11:10 update, Ft. Madison and Dubuque have been added to the brown area. In the meantime, please make sure your shelter area is cleaned out and read to go with a couple of bottles of water, shoes (if your home is hit you don't want to walk barefoot on debris), and diapers if appropriate.  If you live in a mobile home, it is important to find other shelter. If you do not have friends or family in a nearby conventiona...