Flash flood "high risk" forecasts are rare but they account for a greatly disproportionate number of flash flood deaths.  The area Northern California outlined in purple has a high risk of flash flooding Thursday and Thursday night. It is a good time not  to travel and to stay -- to the extent possible -- on higher ground.  The area in red has a "moderate" risk of flash flooding tomorrow and tomorrow night.  This is part of a larger area where flooding is possible the next seven days.  Here's the forecast rainfall for the next seven days.  Please note that, unlike the previous forecasts of the rain/snow from this "atmospheric river," the heavy rains extent south into the Sierra. There will be heavy snow in the higher elevations.  Zooming out, here's the forecast precipitation through next Wednesday. Please note that moderate to heavy forecast rains extend into the L.A. Basin. 

50 Days Ago: Hurricane Helene Develops in the Gulf of Mexico Helene's aftermath should be the lead story on each network's evening news for the foreseeable future.  Here's the latest on the horror in far east Tennessee, far northwest South Carolina, and western North Carolina: the situation is unbelievably bad and the people we pay to mitigate the effects of natural disasters are, at best, failing at their mission.  In the autumn of 2023, we had at least some reporting from the legacy media about the Maui "land grab" after the horrific fire that struck the City of Lahina. The historic city burned to the ground and the fire killed more than 100.  Serious questions remain unanswered about the Maui Wildfire, which is yet another reason why the United States must  create a National Disaster Review Board , see more below. But that is not the primary topic of this piece.  FEMA and insurance companies -- or people claiming to represent them -- have brought out that sa

Powerful low pressure system off the Washington Coast.  It is unusual to have lighting with these winds storms but the yellow and orange symbols are just that.  Update: There are about 140,000 people  already without power as trees topple.  Poweroutage.us Eastside Fire Here's the flood forecast for the next seven days.  The diagonal lines are where "limited" (NWS's word) flooding is forecast to occur starting Thursday. The dark blue area is where "considerable" flooding is likely starting Wednesday night into at least Friday. In fact, there is a "high" risk of flash flooding in the same area. It is vitally important that people in the forecast flood area -- especially in Northern California -- prepare for this event.  Via WeatherBell, here's the NWS's forecast of rainfall amounts in the dark blue area. Taking a wider view of things, here's a view of forecast rainfall from British Columbia to Los Angeles.  Of course, I will continue to u

Snow is forecast to fall in western North Carolina the end of the week -- the area devastated by Hurricane Helene.  With winter setting in, people are desperate.  Many victims have no home, no electricity and at least one is paying $130/month for a Port-A-Potty!! $15 billion will be needed to replace destroyed housing stock. I can't find (and I have looked!) a single first-hand account complimentary of FEMA's work outside of Asheville.  I can say with certainty: FEMA shows little to no sense of urgency. While I, of course, don't know the details in the case below, stories of insurance companies and FEMA rejecting what appear to be valid claims abound. As a meteorologist, I agree with Ms. Smith that this is not flood damage.  So, we must assist.  There are unconfirmed reports that people have already died of exposure. Please  retweet this for others to see so that they may be able to assist.  Many suggest older, but still in good condition, RV homes be donated to the area

Tornado Watch Till 8pm Earlier forecast still valid a 3:05pm The areas in brown have a significant risk of tornadoes. The Beaumont-Port Arthur area is included. 

Extreme rainfall forecast for Northern California and the southwest corner of Oregon the rest of the week and into early next week. High winds accompanying the storm may cause power outages . Here is a detailed map where flooding is most likely. On some of the higher peaks, as much as 20 inches of rain is forecast to occur.  In San Francisco, amounts will be substantial, generally in the 3 to 4 inches range. However, Mount Tam may have more than seven inches by early next week.  Seattle may have 4 inches or more. And, for the first time this season, Los Angeles will be affected by an atmospheric river but the amounts will only be around a quarter inch with as much as a half-inch in the higher elevations.  This forecast could be more definitive if the Hurricane Hunter aircraft were available to survey the developing atmospheric river over the eastern Pacific. But, even though zero  hurricanes are forecast to occur the rest of hurricane season! See below: NCEP = NWS's National Center