A Heads Up for the Central Third of the United States

By -
It has been nearly six years since the last EF-5 tornado in the United States (Moore Tornado, May 20, 2013). We may be getting into a weather pattern that can spawn violent tornadoes and I want to bring it to your attention. 

I often preach against meteorologists attempting to make forecasts of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes days in advance. However, I am both ill (pneumonia) and dealing with an out-of-town family crisis at the moment so I don't know how much forecasting I'll get to do this week. So, I wish to provide this update while I have a chance.

We have a number of blog articles already in the archive for this week. I hope you'll enjoy reading them.

The Forecast
Beginning this Friday, May 17, and into the Memorial Weekend, there is a higher than average risk of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms than we have had the last few months of May. The areas in red are at a relative higher risk with the darker reds = higher risk.
In addition, the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley there is a good chance that heavy rains could reignite flooding through the region.

What good is it to know of this risk at this point?
  • You have plenty of time to check and, if needed, get new batteries for your weather radio.
  • Install the AccuWeather app for location-specific GPS storm warnings with no unnecessary false alarms. 
  • Clear out your storm shelter if you have not done so already. Make sure there is a flash flood with fresh batteries and two bottles of water. If you have a young child(ren), a couple of diapers for each. 
  • Put it on the calendar to make sure you begin checking the forecast starting Thursday evening. 
Here is where the flooding is occurring now.
There is a low pressure center that is going to affect Texas and the South before the main storm arrives late in the week. 
The primary effect of this storm will be to keep the ground saturated -- I don't think it is going to significantly impact the ongoing flooding. 

The big storms will begin the end of this week. Hopefully, my situation will have cleared up and I can resume routine forecasting if the weather conditions require. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The East Coast Severe Weather Threat is Over

By -
Image
Midnight: The East Coast Threat for Tornadoes and Severe  Thunderstorms Has Ended 3:50pm. Tornado watch for the Middle Atlantic Region. 2:30pm Tornadoes are also forecast in the South. 2:20pm. A couple of tornadoes, hail and wind gusts to 65 mph are possible with these storms. This includes NYC and Philadelphia.  1:05pm. The tornado risk has been extended northward into New York. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Remember: if a tornado warning is issued, go to your basement and get under heavy furniture like a pool table. Of, if your basement is finished, get into the bathroom. Go ahead an put a couple of water bottles and, if appropriate, diapers in your shelter area. Wear shoes.  If you don't have a basement or safe room, go to the lowest floor and get into a bath or closet in the middle of your home. Children should be put in the bathtub.  I'll update later today. 
Read more

Today's Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - 9:30pm

By -
Image
After 65 mph winds went through Wichita, we have been without power for 35 minutes. So, I am going to have to end coverage for the night (using backup systems to write this). Scroll down for the forecast of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night.  Please read down for the latest forecasts regarding this dangerous tornado and damaging wind situation! 5:40pm, a new "regular" tornado watch has been issued for north central Kansas.  Note that wind gusts to 80 mph are likely in this storm in addition to tornadoes and giant hail. Please make sure friends and relatives in the area are aware of the danger in the area outlined in red below plus the red area outlined at 2:50pm  In addition to "several strong tornadoes," hail to 4.8" in diameter is forecast along with wind gusts to 80 mph. Now is the time for persons living in mobile homes, manufactured homes and those with mobility issues should be making plans!!  Do not wait until a tornado warn...
Read more

Updated Freezing Rain and Heavy Rain Forecast

By -
Image
Note: An Updated Forecast is Available HERE Freezing Rain The National Weather Service has now issued winter weather advisories, two warnings and a watch. It may be a bit too large but, when it comes to freezing rain and slick roads, caution is usually the better course of action.  Here's a color code: Deep purple is an ice storm warning; serious condition where power outages are possible. Pink is a winter storm warning for significant icing. Deep green is a winter storm watch. I don't know why this is still a watch. If I were on the forecast desk I would have a winter storm warning for icing.  Dark blue is a winter weather advisory, a lesser condition, for icing.  Here is a view of the entire watch/warning/advisory area. The small area of green in Illinois is for flooding and, in Nebraska, for snow.  Here is a forecast of freezing rain amounts; totals to 6am Tuesday.  Color codes: Yellow is 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Power outages may occur in this areas. Deep blue i...
Read more