Posts

A Posting For Meteorologists - The Future of Forecasting

Image
2022 tornado, image by Ben Holcomb The NWS did not  provide an advance warning of this Kansas tornado as the tornado was in progress when the warning was issued. [If you aren't a meteorologist or meteorology student, feel free to skip this post.] On December 1, we published a piece outlining our recommendations pertaining to the future of the National Weather Service . There are serious  issues pertaining to the way meteorologists are educated and trained in 2024 that desperately need to be addressed in 2025.  Today, I want to focus on one of the recommendations pertaining to meteorologists' training:   There is an expectation that meteorologists should be able to intervene and change a forecast when the computer forecasts are obviously wrong. But, as aviation safety has learned, there is no way for people to overrule defective automation output when they have little or no experience doing so.  An analogy: Why did Asiana Airlines Flight 214 crash in 2013 in...

Early Christmas and Hanukkah Travel Outlook

Image
If you are headed to the Northeast tomorrow evening, be aware there could be significant flight delays due to snow.  Forecast for 6pm Friday Forecasrt for 6am Saturday As for Saturday, delays are still possible in the Northeast. Meanwhile, delays are likely  at the San Francisco airline hub and possible at the Seattle hub. 

Old People Are Correct - Less Snow These Days

Image
You may have heard your grandfather or grandmother say, "We have less snow today than when I was your age." Turns out they are correct in most of the Lower 48. While Alaska has seen a big increase in snow, just about all of the lower 48 have seen significant decreases in snow as shown on the NOAA map above.  The reason for less snow is because the 50's, 60's and 70's were during the Mid-Century cooling. See below. WoodforTrees.org Climate scientists do not  know why temperatures cooled in the middle of the 20th Century. So, any measurement that begins in 1959 will show more snow. 

For Your Consideration: Christmas, Hanukah or New Year Gift Giving

Image
As NOAA and FEMA have been controversy factories recently, I don't want us to loose focus on far west North Carolina, far northwest South Carolina and far east Tennessee which were hit so hard by Hurricane Helene. Another brief video is here . If you haven't given, please  consider a monetary gift to Samaritan's Purse  . They are doing incredible work in the region. 

Biden's Order to NOAA, "Use Native American Wisdom"

Image
Now that President Biden is a lame duck, we're getting a preview of what a second Biden, or Harris, Administration would have been like.  In addition to cruelly neglecting the southern Appalachian's plight after Helene -- while sending huge  amounts of money to the Ukraine -- President Biden has ordered the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to use "Indigenous Knowledge" when forecasting the climate. Really .  Via MSN News As Biden is a lame duck, I would have replied, "Thank you, Mr. President" and filed away the proposal as Biden only has 35 days left. Unfortunately, NOAA's Administrator, Dr. Rick Spinrad, said,  “These knowledge systems are needed more than ever to inform NOAA,” said the NOAA administrator. His comments get worse (you can read them  here ) but I can't bring myself to write more about them.  As long-time readers know, I have been critical of Dr. Spinrad's treatment of the National Weather Service and its forecasts....

Recommendations to President Trump Regarding FEMA

Image
One of dozens of homes destroyed by the 2022 Andover, Kansas, Tornado If you missed yesterday's story about FEMA on Full Measure With Sharyl Attkisson , I encourage you to watch before reading further. You'll find the story here . It explains some of the many issues with FEMA's current operating model that -- literally -- have DEI and climate change ranking higher in FEMA's priorities than assisting disaster victims! If I were asked to give advice regarding the short- to medium-term future of FEMA, I would offer the advice listed below. The ultimate, and superior, advice would come from a National Disaster Review Board, but FEMA has become so dysfunctional that I don't believe the nation can afford to wait to make some or all of these changes.  The Advice The new mission of FEMA would be to serve as a facilitator to state and local governments in the wake of major (not routine) extreme weather and natural disasters (e.g., tsunami).  The current "boots on the gr...

Great Book for Christmas Giving

Image
Books, especially those with great reviews, make great Christmas gifts. Hope you will consider giving  Warnings  as one of your Christmas gifts.